Analysis On The Temporal And Spatial Clustering Of Dengue Fever In Zhejiang Province

Objective: By analyzing epidemiological characteristics of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2016,we aimed to provide theoretical basis for etiological exploration,disease prevention,medical care and health decision-making for controlling dengue.Spatial autocorrelation calculations,mapping of disease distribution and clustering analysis method were used to visualize the epidemic data and to obtain spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2016.This study has provided recommendations for a more accurate and effective prevention and control of dengue.Methods: This study was based on the data from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,which include the Dengue Cases of Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2016,and supplemented by the data of field epidemiological investigation.The data were analyzed statistically by Excel,SPSS,analysis of the epidemic characteristics of dengue fever in Zhejiang province for 2004-2016 years;At the same time,ArcGIS 10.0 analyzed special autocorrelation with the county as the spatial scale,and be visually described.To applied Satscan.9.3,Temporal Scan Statistic was conducted using daily time units,and Spacial Scan Statistic was performed using counties as spatial scales.Space-time scan statistics was used monthly and countries as time and special scales.Results: The analysis of the 611 cases of dengue fever reported in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2016 showed that dengue fever has the characteristics as follows: 1)The occurring of dengue fever was seasonal,which concentrated in August,September and October.;people between the age of 20 and 64 took over 80.1% of all cases;and people serving in farming,business and industry were much sensitive to dengue,accounting for 62.7%;there was no significant difference in gender of all the responding cases.2)Space-time scan statistics detected 1 most likely cluster and 6 secondary clusters(P<0.05)of dengue cases distribution.The most likely cluster is Yiwu County(2009/8/1-2009/9/30).The secondary clusters are Cixi County(2004/9/1-2004/10/31),Jindong District(2009/9/1-2009/9/30),Keqiao District(2015/8/1-2015/9/30),Huangyan District(2016/10/1-2016/11/30)and urban areas of Ningbo(2013/8/1-2013/8/31)and Hangzhou(2015/8/1-2016/11/30).Conclusion: Space-time scanning statistic is the best method for the analysis of spatial characteristics of dengue fever in this study.This method identifies the space-time clusters of dengue fever in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2016.There are Yiwu City,urban areas of Hangzhou and Ningbo.Therefore,much attention should focus on the clusters during hot rainy season.Systemic preventive measures in controlling mosquito spreading and reproduction at this point.Space-time scanning statistic is more flexible and accurate than general epidemiological analysis,and the data visualization effect is outstanding.It more intuitively reflects the temporal and spatial characteristics of the disease.It can be used for the early warning of infectious diseases such as dengue fever,and provides a reference for the prevention and control of the disease.