| Objective:Analyze the development trend,growth rate,and compositional changes of health human resources in Gansu Province.Master the changes in the total number and composition of health personnel,the changes in health technicians,the development of health care ratios,the changes in the health and human resources per1,000 population,and the changes in the number of health personnel in various health institutions.The development of health human resources in primary health care institutions.Using different forecasting methods,predicting the demand for health human resources in Gansu Province from 2018 to 2022,summarizing the overall development of health human resources in Gansu Province in recent years,and presenting corresponding suggestions,and formulating a plan for the development of health workforce for science.Provide a basis for optimizing the allocation of medical and human resources.Methods:The descriptive statistical method analyzes the development of health human resources in Gansu Province;The human population ratio prediction method,time series model prediction method and BP neural network model prediction method are used to predict the demand for health human resources in 2018-2022.Results:(1)In 2009-2017,the average annual growth rate of health human resources in Gansu Province was 5.93%,among which the average annual growth rate of health technicians,village doctors and health workers,other technicians,management personnel and workers and technicians was 6.20 %,2.39%,9.97%,12.79%,3.21% respectively.(2)The average annual growth rate of practicing(assistant)physicians,registered nurses,pharmacists(skills),technicians(scholars)and other health technicians in 2009-2017 was 3.30%,6.66%,3.94%,4.97%,and 0.89%,respectively.the proportion of practicing(assistant)physicians,pharmacists(scholars)and other health technicians in health technicians showed a downward trend,the proportion of registered nurses gradually increased,and the proportion of technicians(skills)inhealth technicians did not change much;By 2017,registered nurses had the highest growth rate and the highest growth rate in the chain,and the lowest among other health technicians;the difference in the proportion of urban and rural health technicians and registered nurses was statistically significant(P<0.05),practicing(assistant)physicians didn’t have statistical significant(P>0.05).The number of health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses in Zhangye City,Wuwei City and Dingxi City increased steadily,and the growth rate increased steadily.The proportion of health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses in Baiyin City,Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture has been decreasing and the average annual growth rate is low.(3)The ratio of medical care has increased from 1:0.64 in 2002 to 1:1.04 in2017.After 2009,the level of medical care has gradually become reasonable,but it has not yet reached the national average;The level of the urban and rural health care ratio have increased year by year,but the gap between the national is growing.(4)In 2002-2017,the average annual growth rate of health technicians per thousand population,practicing(assistant)physiciansand registered nurses were3.91%,3.15%,and 6.48%,respectively.The health human resources per thousand population is growing and the growth rate is obvious,but there is still a big gap compared with the national average.(5)In 2011-2016,theaverage annual growth rate of health human resources in hospitals was 6.76%.The proportion of hospitals in the province’s total number of health workers showed an upward trend(P<0.05);The average annual growth rate of primary health care institutions was 0.98%,which showed a downward trend in the proportion of health workers in the province(P<0.05);The average annual growth rate of health workers in public health institutions was 15.35%,which was an upward trend(P<0.05);The average annual growth rate of health workers in other health institutions was 4.53%,which was a downward trend(P<0.05).As of 2016,The growth rate of fixed base ratio of hospitals,primary health care institutions,public health institutions,and other health institutions was 38.72%,5.00%,104.23%,24.81%,respectively;The total number of hospital health human resources increased by 33.52% compared with 2011,the grassroots medical and health institutions increased by 4.93%,the total health human resources of public health institutions increased by 95.45%,and other health institutions increased by 66.95%.In 2016,thenumber of hospital health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians,and registered nurses accounted for more than half of the province’s total.The level of medical care ratio of 1:1.15 was also much higher than other health institutions,and the amount of health human resources was relatively sufficient.(6)The average annual growth rate ofthe health human resources inGansu Provincial Community Health Center(Station)was 12.22%;The average annual growth rateof health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses were 12.15%,9.79%,and 13.75%,respectively,and the Ring growth rate were decreasing.The proportion of health technicians did not change much,and remained basically stable(P>0.05).The proportion of practicing(assistant)physicians in the total number of health workers decreased year by year(P<0.05).The proportion of registered nurses increased year by year(P<0.05).The average annual growth rate ofthe health human resources in rural township health centerswas 4.77%;the average annual growth rate of health technicians was5.33%,and the average annual growth rate of practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses were 4.02%.,13.15%;The proportion of health technicians increased year by year(P<0.05),the proportion of practicing(assistant)physicians in the total number of health workers in rural township hospitals decreased year by year(P<0.05),and the proportion of registered nurses increased year by year(P<0.05).The Ring growth rate of health personnel,health technicians and registered nurses has been decreasing,and the growth rate of practicing(assistant)physicians has been decreasing first and then increasing.The number of township hospitals per thousand agricultural population has steadily increased beyond the national average after 2013.The average annual growth rate ofthe health human resources in the village clinicwas 7.02%;The average annual growth rate of practicing(assistant)physicians was 19.83%,and the registered nurses was 39.21%,the rural doctors and health workers was 2.37%.The proportion of practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses in the total number of health workers in the village clinics were increasing(P<0.05),and the proportion of rural doctors and health workers was decreasing(P<0.05).The Ring growth rate of health workers,rural doctors and health workers has been relatively stable.The Ring growth rate of practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses was the fastest in 2012,and it was decreasing year after year after 2012.The number of average rural doctors and health workers per thousand agricultural population has increased year by year,and has gradually exceeded thenational average since 2014.(7)The human population ratio method predicts that the number of health human resources from 2018 to 2022 is 208194,218587,229498,240954,and252982;the number of people predicted by the time series model is 213333,226965,241333,256438,272281;The number of people predicted by the BP network model is 203731,217947,231801,265129,and 285211.The time series model is used to predict that the number of health workers,health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses will reach 272281,240909,78713 and 127234,respectively,by 2022.Conclusions:(1)The development of health human resources in Gansu Province is slow,and there is a problem of unbalanced development of health human resources.(2)The distribution of health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses between rural and urban areas and between cities is uneven.(3)The ratio of health care is gradually becoming reasonable,but it has not yet reached the national average.(4)The health human resources per thousand population is growing and the growth rate is obvious,but there is still a big gap compared with the national average.(5)The health and human resources of various medical and health institutions are slow to grow and the allocation is unreasonable.The health workforce is over-concentrated in hospitals.The health technicians in primary health care institutions,public health institutions and other health institutions are relatively inadequate.(6)There is insufficient health human resources in primary health care institutions,and there is a slow growth and uneven development of health human resources in community health centers(stations);there is a serious shortage of registered nurses in rural township health centers and village clinics.(7)It is predicted that by 2022,the number of health personnel,health technicians,practicing(assistant)physicians and registered nurses will reach 272,281,240,909,78,731 and 127,234,respectively. |
PDF Full Text Request