The Study Of The Relation Between Dengue Fever And Climate Factors?"Five Elements' Motion And Six Kinds Of Natural Factors" In Singapore

ObjectiveDengue fever is a major public health problem in Singapore,and the tropical climate of high temperature and humidity provides appropriate conditions for the spread of an epidemic.The incidence of dengue fever in Singapore has been characterized by obvious cyclical fluctuations over the past 30 years or so.The theory of "five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors”is to analyse and predict climate change and disease epidemic by traditional Chinese medicine(TCM).In this study,we analysed the regular pat tern and relationship between the incidence of dengue fever and the cl imate factors such as rainfall,temperature,humidity and sunshine etc.in Singapore in the last 7 years,and analysed the relationship between the climate change and the incidence of dengue fever with the help of TCM theory of "five elements'motion and six kinds of natural factors",to reveal the scientific connotation of the theory of "five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors".MethodsIn the study,used websites to collect epidemic data,meteorological data and literature on relationship between etiology and pathogenesis of epidemic disease and "five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors" in Singapore.Among them,the data of dengue fever morbidity is derived from the official website of Singapore's Ministry of Health(www.dengue.gov.sg);meteorological data are downloaded from the official website of the Singapore Meteorological service Singapore(http://www.singapore.climatemps.com/)including the monthly and yearly average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average air pressure,average relative humidity,sunshine hours and rainfall;data analysis is to study the relationship between the climate change caused by meteorological factors and the incidence of dengue fever by using the regression analysis method of trend line fitting scattered point with various meteorological factor castellations,so as to make Spearman correlation analysis for the incidence of dengue fever and the climatic factors,including rainfall,average air temperature,minimum temperature,maximum temperature and average sunshine hours.Data regression analysis was performed using SPSS software.Aiming at number of patients with dengue fever in Singapore from 2012 to 2018 and combining with conclusion induced from weather factors such as temperature,humidity,sunshine hours and so on,we applied the TCM theory of "five elements' motion and six kinds of natural factors"to deduce the yearly evolutive phase and the monthly primary and secondary natural factors,and analysed the climatic regular pattern in the seven years from 2012 to 2018,as well as the elements'motion for the high incidence of the epidemic.Through the analysis of influence of the elements' motion in the "Internal Canon of Medicine" on historic epidemic outbreak and the relationship between the climatic factors and the incidence of dengue fever,the relationship was concluded for climate,"five elements'motion and six kinds of natural factors" and epidemic situation of dengue fever.ConclusionThrough Spearman correlation analysis,it is found that there is a nonlinear correlation between the number of patient with dengue fever and the rainfall,average humidity,average air temperature and maximum temperature,and there is no correlation between the number of patient with dengue fever and the minimum temperature and average sunshine hours(P>0.05).Logistic regression analysis shows that only the tested regression equation of average humidity has significance in the above factors,indicating that the average humidity is an important factor affecting the incidence of dengue fever in Singapore.Through statistical analysis of the monthly average humidity and the incidence of dengue fever in every year from 2012 to 2018,there is a weak nonlinear negative correlation between the two as a whole.The reasons may be related to the suppression of mosquito reproduction caused by heavy rainfall and the decrease in the number of citizens out of home.It is found that the six natural factors closely related to the epidemic situation of dengue fever are Taiyin wet soil,Taiyang cold water,Shaoyang ministerial fire,and Shaoyin sovereign fire.The prevalence of dengue fever has a great relationship with fire,dampness and cold.The influence of cold water may regulate the body' s natural factor by giving full play to its nature of hiding and settling.When there is internal heat stagnation and external cold water converging,it is easy to form the external cold and inner heat constitution type with heat wrapped by cold.When there is a damp-heat pathogenic factor again,the internal and external pathogenic factors combine together,the disease is more serious and is easy to cause the outbreak of the epidemic.There may be a dengue fever epidemic between the middle and the end of 2019,the local authorities in Singapore should pay attention to the possible epidemic and make a good preparation.