Research On Social Risk Assessment Model Indicators Of Community Drug Rehabilitation Personnel In A District Of Yunnan Province

Objective:Apply multidisciplinary theories and methods,through the survey obtained the evaluation indicators and social risk assessment results of community drug rehabilitation personnel who received social risk assessment.Evaluate the effectiveness of risk assessment models by analysing the indicators that affect the social risk assessment results of community drug rehabilitation personnel and indicators impact levels.Quantitative and qualitative research on social risk assessment model indicators of community drug rehabilitation personnel in a certain area of Yunnan Province from the perspectives of policy,economy,society and public security,health and community.Evidence-based reference recommendations and measures for further improving the applicability of empirical evaluation model indicators.Methods:Using literature research method to determine the main method of this study,selection of research site and survey object definition through expert consultation.Using on-site questionnaire survey and database information secondary survey methods,in March 2018,August 2018 and January 2019,354 community drug rehabilitation rehabilitation personnel were collected.Univariate analysis,multiple linear regression analysis and Logistc multivariate regression analysis were used to quantitatively analyze the evaluation indexes and evaluation results of the three survey data;The discriminant equation was established by the data of January 2019,and the discriminant analysis was performed on the previous two survey data.The’MMT Take Home’ standard was used as the main reference,and the three survey data were screened and evaluated.It is mainly for qualitative interviews with public security,health,community workers and community drug rehabilitation personnel.Results:1.The cumulative survey of this study obtained 354 data,including 310 males and 43 females,with a male-female ratio of 7.21:1;the age was mainly 35-45 years old(70.3%);In three surveys,the’MMT Take Home’ rates were 15.8/100,15.9/100 and 13.6/100,respectively;Among the community drug rehabilitation personnel,the past had a bad record of 5.6%,5.6%and 6.5%respectively.The final assessment resulted in a low risk of 148(41.9%),a medium risk of 86(24.4%),and a high risk of 119(33.7%).2.The univariate analysis results of the three surveys were the same,the final ’personnel status’(χ2=43.538,P<0.001),’whether to take methadone’(x2=26.801,P<0.001),and ’the methadone enrollment period’(χ2=132.736,P=0.<0.001),’whether it is take home’(χ2=71.585,P<0.001),’sentence history’(χ2=6.393,P=0.041),;discrepancy record’(χ2=5.710,P=0.016)all above variables have statistically significant.The multiple linear regression results of the three surveys were not all the same.Final ’education level ’(B=-8.729,P=0.035),’marital status’(B=8.107,P=0.019),’personnel status’(B=-8.025,P=0.020),’methadone enrollment period’(B=-7.514,P=0.001),’whether to take methadone’(B=-0.516,P<0.001),’sentence history’(B=9.749,P<0.022),‘discrepancy record’(B=28.719,P=0.004),7 variables entered the equation,the marital status and methadone enrollment time were gradually included in the equation variables.Ordered multi-classified logistic regression analysis showed that the personnel status was compulsory rehabilitation(OR=3.245,P<0.001)and the sentence history(OR=1.449,P=0.050)was a risk factor to be assessed as a medium-high risk,taking methadone(OR=0.572,P=0.001),methadone enrollment period(OR=0.472,P=0.002)was a protective factor to be assessed as low risk.3.The discriminant function was statistically significant(χ2=142.680,P<0.001),and the prior probabilities of the low-risk group and the medium-high-risk group were equal to 0.419 and 0.581,respectively.After the data back to the discriminant function,the correct discriminant rate of the model was 62.2%,and the false positive rate was 37.8%.The correct discriminant rate of high risk in the model was 87.3%,and the false positive rate was 12.7%.4.The ’MMT Take Home’ standard was used as the main reference,the sensitivity,specificity,and AUC values of the screening test which methadone take home/low-risk as positive result were 95.8%、61.8%、0.788;96.9%、60.0%、0.790;97.9%、66.9%、0.824,respectively.The sensitivity,specificity and AUC values of the discriminant equation were 95.8%、77.6%、0.967;97.9%、74.5%、0.862;97.9%、76.1%、0.870,respectively.5.In the three qualitative interviews in June,September 2018 and January 2019,the public security,health,and community departments believed that the improvement of model indicators was to improve accuracy and objectivity;community drug rehabilitation personnel believed that the improvement of model indicators was to improve fairness and comprehensiveness.Conclusion:The social risk assessment model for community rehabilitation personnel in a certain area of Yunnan Province was completed in January 2019,and 353 were included in the assessment.The evaluation indicators included 13 indicators including basic personnel information,social security characteristics and past bad records.Among them,the personnel status,taking methadone,methadone enrollment period,sentence history and disciplinary records,the weights of the five indicators should continue to keep;the education level and marital status should be improved and the evaluation weight should be strengthened;weaken the remaining 6 index weight.The ’MMT Take Home’ standard as a main reference,the optimization effect of the model index is obvious three times,and model indicators have been initially accurate,objective and comprehensive.The discriminant function can be used as the next step to improve the reference direction of the model index.