Prediction And Control Of Brucellosis In Urumqi,Xinjiang

Objective:To explore the application of exponential smoothing time series model and infectious disease dynamics model in the spread of diseases among three groups of people,sheep and cattle in Urumqi,Xinjiang.Based on the analysis results of the dynamic model,understand the general prevalence of brucellosis in Urumqi,Xinjiang,and provide relevant departments with the best strategies for the prevention and treatment of brucellosis and scientific theoretical basis.Method:According to the surveillance data of sheep brucellosis in Urumqi,Xinjiang from 2012 to 2017,the Holt double parameter exponential smoothing method was used to establish a time series model to predict the incidence of sheep brucellosis in Urumqi in the next two years.Then,according to the spread mechanism of brucellosis,the dynamic model of brucellosis transmission was constructed according to the incidence of brucellosis among three groups of people,sheep and cattle in Urumqi,Xinjiang.Using Matlab software and R software to perform data simulation on the dynamic model and analyze to get the basic regeneration number R₀.According to the analysis results,determine the key factors of brucellosis infection in the three groups of human,sheep and cattle,and seek the best control strategy.Results:Holt double parameter exponential smoothing method can fit the change trend of positive rate of brucellosis of sheep in Urumqi,with an average absolute percentage error（MAPE）of 0.013%.The positive rates of detection of bacteriosis were 1.02%（95%CI:0.25%to 4.18%）and 1.51%（95%CI:0.04%to 54.94%）.In the dynamic model,R₀=0.487,indicating that Brucellosis will gradually decrease until disappearing in Urumqi.Probably because of the large amount of cattle and sheep introduced from other places in Urumqi every year,the cloth disease has long existed.Quantitative analysis of the sensitive factors of brucellosis revealed that the number of sick sheep will remain relatively stable in the next 10 years,and the number of sick cows will continue to decrease.The main measures to control the disease of Urumqi cattle and sheep are under the existing control measures Reducing the number of imported cattle,appropriately increasing the detection of brucellosis of imported cattle and sheep,and culling sick cattle and sheep;under the current control measures,the number of patients with human brucellosis will continue to grow,while controlling brucellosis The simplest and most effective way to infect humans is to reduce the transmission rate between sheep and humans and between sheep and sheep.Conclusion:The time series model of brucellosis in this paper fits well and can be used as a tool for predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi,Xinjiang.Brucellosis dynamic model predicts and analyzes three groups of people,sheep,and cattle in Urumqi,Xinjiang,to fully grasp the dynamic changes of brucellosis.Therefore,it can provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of brucellosis.