Study On The Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics And Risk Factors Of Death Caused By Chronic Disease Based On Point/Surface Model

The study of the characteristics of the spatiotemporal differentiation of chronic diseases and risk factors has important guiding significance for the control and prevention of chronic diseases in the region.However,currently constrained by factors such as policy and technology,research in this area is still at the preliminary exploration stage,and there are problems such as single selection of data models,insufficient research methods,and insufficient exploration of the causes of risks.In response to the above problems,this article takes the data of cardio-cerebrovascular and cancer fatal cases in Mianyang City from 2008 to 2016 as the research object,based on the socio-demographic characteristics of two types of chronic diseases and the comprehensive analysis ideas of point / area patterns.The characteristics of spatiotemporal differentiation and spatial evolution of chronic diseases are systematically analyzed.On this basis,a geographic detector was used to detect the differences in the explanatory power and interaction of 12 types of chronic disease lethal risk factors,and the correlation between the risk factor classification and the mortality rate of chronic diseases was quantitatively analyzed.Finally,based on the results of risk detection,a risk assessment model of chronic disease lethality in the study area was constructed,and early warning identified high-risk risk areas of chronic disease lethality in Mianyang City.The main results and conclusions of the article are as follows:(1)The two types of chronic diseases have different sociodemographic characteristics.Among the deaths of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and cancer,the proportion of people engaged in agriculture-related work is much higher than that of other types of work;the death groups of the two groups are mainly 62-80 years old.The difference in the average age of death of cancer between the sexes is small;the death rate of men with both chronic diseases is higher than that of women.The average death rate of cancer men is 68%,and that of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular is 55%.(2)The spatial differentiation characteristics of the deaths of the two types of chronic diseases are similar.During the study period,both types of chronic diseases showed an obvious aggregation distribution pattern,and the degree of aggregation showed a fluctuating upward trend;in terms of spatial evolution,both of them had a tendency to concentrate from small hot spots to large cities.The results of spatial correlation indicate that the spatial dependence of chronic disease death is a non-stationary transition in geographical units,and the overall spatial heterogeneity has a tendency to weaken fluctuations;the local spatial autocorrelation adopts two modes of high-high and low-low agglomeration as the Lord.In addition,the research results of the surface model show that the geographical boundary effect plays a significant role in the spatial differentiation of chronic diseases.(3)The selected 12 risk factors have high similarity to the fluctuation of the spatial differentiation explanatory power of two chronic diseases.Among them,the annual average temperature,the proportion of male population,and population density have a strong explanation for the two chronic diseases;the annual average temperature,annual precipitation and other risk factors have a positive correlation with the mortality rate of chronic diseases,but have a negative correlation with the altitude factor;In the classification of all risk factor data,the value and fluctuation of the mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are always higher than that of cancer.The two types of interactions between risk factors are both double synergy and nonlinear synergy,indicating that the interaction of any two risk factors will enhance the explanatory power of risk factors for the spatial differentiation of two types of chronic diseases.(4)The high-risk areas of chronic diseases in Mianyang City mainly take Fucheng District(Youxian District)and Jiangyou City as the two centers,and gradually decrease to the surrounding towns,and the relative risk level of cancer declines faster.In addition to the two centers,there are many higher-risk areas around it,which are distributed in a north-south band;the low-risk areas for death from chronic diseases are mainly distributed in Pingwu and Beichuan counties where ethnic minorities gather in the north of Mianyang City.Risk early warning analysis shows that the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases in Mianyang City should be based on large cities and towns,and attention should be paid to the prevention and publicity work of Santai,Zitong,and Yanting counties with large agricultural populations and loose distribution.The research results of this article can provide a more scientific and reasonable basis for the effective development of chronic disease prevention and control work and the spatial optimization of prevention and control resources in the region.The research ideas can also provide new analysis for the exploration of chronic disease spatiotemporal patterns and the exploration of risk factors Perspective.