Box Office Forecasting And Optimal Pricing For Theaters In China

In recent years,China’s cinema industry has developed at a high speed.By 2017,more than 8000 cinemas and more than 40000 screens had been built in the country.There are few related researches such as operational efficiency and so on.It is urgent to combine the theoretical and practical research results to support the cinema industry to improve its operating efficiency and increase its income.For a movie theater,the main source of revenue is film screening revenue(i.e.box office income)and merchandise sales(sales revenue).The pricing of movie ticket prices by cinemas will directly affect the number of people watching the film.This will have an impact on box office revenue and sales revenue.Too high or too low pricing results in a drop in theater revenue.I’ve learned from years of management experience in the theater industry.At present,the pricing of cinemas does not adopt a scientific and reasonable pricing method,but mainly according to the pricing method of following the market,simply according to the price guidance of the issuer and the environment and service level of the cinema itself.In fact,the cinema’s pricing of a movie should take into account the overall viewing scale of the film,the impact of the cinema’s pricing level on the number of cinema viewing times,and the structure of the cinema’s different revenues.To maximize profit for the purpose of optimal pricing.First of all,based on the analysis of box office influence factors,we first set up a multiple regression model to predict of the total box office and the number of people watching movies in China’s film market;then,combined with the prediction of the total number of people watching movies,we set up a logit selection model to predict the number of people watching movies in a single cinema;finally,according to the model of the number of people watching movies in cinemas,Combined with the revenue structure of cinemas,the profit pricing model of cinemas is established to analyze the optimal pricing of cinemas.This study analyzes the relevant models by collecting more than 200 movies in a cinema.The experiment shows that the correlation prediction model(the prediction model of the total film box office and the number of people watching the film)has a good statistical significance,and it can well predict the box office and the number of people watching the film.The analysis of the profit-pricing model shows that the optimal pricing of cinemas is influenced by the overall film viewing scale,the level of cinema pricing,and the structure of cinema revenue.The related models provide technical support for reasonable pricing of cinema.The research results of this study not only provide a reliable scientific method for the movie theater to make reasonable ticket price,but also help the movie theater to select and arrange films reasonably and improve the efficiency of cinema operation.This study will help to improve the scientific management level of cinema industry and provide theoretical support for the rapid development of domestic cinema industry.