Study On The Influencing Factors Of China’s Cultural Goods Export To The Belt And Road Countries In The Light Of Trade Duration

As an important part of cultural trade,cultural goods trade plays an indispensable role in expanding the share of China’s cultural trade in the international market and enhancing the overall strength and competitiveness of China’s cultural industry.China’s export of cultural goods to countries along the Belt and Road will help Chinese culture spread to the Belt and Road,thus fully yielding the political,economic and cultural effects of cultural trade,which could further promote the construction of the Belt and Road initiative.At the same time,the growth of cultural goods trade does not only depend on the diversification strategy,but also maintaining the current trade relations.First,the author analyzes China’s export of cultural products to the Belt and Road countries from the point of the scale of trade,product structure and market structure using the statistics of China’s cultural products export to the Belt and Road countries coded by HS-6 in the UN Comtrade database from 2008 to 2017.This paper finds that China’s export of cultural products to the Belt and Road countries is characterized by an imbalanced product structure and market structure.The second part is to analyze the factors affecting China’s export of cultural products to the Belt and Road countries,and to explore the internal relation mechanism.Thirdly,the author uses the Kaplan-Meier survival function in the survival analysis method to measure the trade duration of China’s cultural goods export to the Belt and Road countries.The average duration of cultural products export trade relations is 4.30 years,and the trade relations have a negative time dependence.Using the Cox proportional hazard model to construct a survival analysis model to effectively analyze the impacts of factors on the trade duration of cultural goods export,the result shows that the greater the GDP of the export destination countries,the per capita consumption capacity,the initial trade volume,the state’s support for the cultural industry,and the cultural innovation capability,the shorter the trade duration of China’s cultural products export to the Belt and Road countries.The greater the cultural distance between the export destination countries and China,the religious difference index,the easier it is for the trade relations between China and the Belt and Road countries to be interrupted and the shorter the duration would be.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from different angles,thus providing reference for the development of China’s cultural goods export to the Belt and Road countries.