The Effect Of Time Pressure,Decision Role,Event Valence And Thinking Mode On Subjective Probability Judgement

Humans make decisions that involve a lot of uncertainty every day.In order to make more objective and effective decisions,people must learn to deal with these uncertainties rationally.As a cognitive process,subjective probability judgment is closely related to decision making,and it affects people’s final decision.Therefore,it is important 、to discuss the formation and influencing factors of subjective probability judgment.Previous studies have found that time pressure affects individual judgment and decision making,that is,under time pressure,individuals tend to choose conservative in the positive frame and risk taking in the negative frame.Under high time pressure,subjects were more likely to choose conservative options in the negative frame.Other studies have suggested that when time pressure increases,individuals tend to use heuristic strategies to make quick judgment decisions.When time is tight,individuals show the behavior of focusing on the present with unconscious thinking.Most of the research on unconscious thinking focuses on the comparison between conscious and unconscious thinking.Some scholars discussed the influence of different decision roles and event valence on subjective probability judgment under time pressure,but did not discuss the influence of different decision roles and event valence on subjective probability judgment under unconscious thinking.Three experiments were designed to explore this issue.The purpose of the pre-experiment was to measure the average time an individual completed a task and set a time limit.According to the research paradigm of time pressure,set the time to 4 minutes.In the formal experiment,experiment 1 measured the performance of participants in subjective probability judgment under different time pressure,96 college students,48 girls and 48 boys were selected,None of the participants had previously participated in a similar experiment.event valence and different decision-making roles through a set of questionnaire consisting of 64 future life events.The results of experiment 1 show that with or without time pressure,the probability value of individuals’ judgment of the occurrence of positive events is higher.The probability value of people’s subjective judgment is different with or without time pressure.In experiment 2,in order to measure the performance of participants in subjective probability judgment under different thinking modes,96 college students,50 girls and 46 boys were selected,All the participants were able to see the computer screen clearly and had not previously participated in the same experiment.All the participants were able to operate the computer keyboard simultaneously with their right and left hands.event valence and different decision-making roles,a set of questionnaire consisting of 64 future life events and a 1 back task were tested.The results of experiment 2 showed that the probability value of individuals’ judgment of the occurrence of positive events was higher,whether consciously or unconsciously.When it came to participants making subjective judgments about themselves and their friends,subjective probabilistic judgments were influenced by the way they thought.Under conscious and unconscious thinking,the probability value of people’s subjective judgment is different.