Social Early Warning Analysis Of International Political Unrest

As representative of the international political movements in 21 century,“Color revolution” and “Arab spring” have much effects in common.Especially on political rights、economic、cultural and all aspects of life.These two political movements have also aroused the alarm of other countries.Throughout the two revolutions,there are many commonalities in the causes and effects.This paper analyzes the occurrence,causes,results and warnings of two international political movements through four parts: comparative study,empirical study and historical research.The first part is the literature review,from the two domestic and foreign research perspective on “color revolution” and “Arab Spring”.Among them,the domestic scholars who study on “color revolution” focused on three perspectives,namely,internal and external causes and the inspiration to China.The study of “Arab Spring” focuses on its causes,processes and results.While foreign scholars are mainly focus on the basis of Western values from the macro-level and micro-level analysis and analysis.The second part chooses the quantitative data of GDP growth,corruption degree,political freedom and media freedom.Focusing on GDP growth,corruption levels,political liberty and medium freedom compared with the data makes quantitative analysis and establish the forewarning system and emergency mechanism.The third part uses the indicators of economic,political,cultural and social life to establish political forewarning system about the political unrest which is graded as red,yellow and blue.The fourth part is the summary of the findings.China is in a critical period of social transformation,the need for economic,anti-corruption and cultural construction of possible political unrest to be targeted response.The study found that economic stability is the primary guarantee to avoid the occurrence of social and political instability.To fight against corruption,control social injustice,reduce the polarization are necessary measures to prevent social and political unrest.