Risk Assessment Of Stampede Accident In Subway Station Based On FFTA-FCE Method

With the acceleration of urbanization,the urban subway network planning also gets better.As a kind of convenient,timely,and large-capacity transport,subway makes the resident's travel more rapid and comfortable.However,it is precisely because of the subway's unique advantages that more and more residents have listed it as the best choice when they travel,thus contribute to the increasing of passenger flow volume in subway station.During rush hour,subway stations are often overcrowded.In addition,subway station is confined in space and complex in structure,any unexpected accident will cause panic in crowded passengers and lead to group stampede.Therefore,scientific risk assessment of stampede accident in subway stations is extremely important.Due to numerous influencing factors and lack of statistical data,this paper will assess the risk of subway station stampede accident based on fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Firstly,through the analysis of stampede accidents occurred in subway station to sum up the accident's features,analyze the influencing factors of subway station stampede accidents.Exploring the formation mechanism of it on the basis of Crisis life cycle theory,divide evolution of it into three stages: crowd gathering,panic and squeeze,massive stampede.Then,combining the causation and mechanism analysis to build fault tree for subway station stampede accidents.Through fuzzy fault tree analysis to calculate the fuzzy probability of stampede accident's occurrence in subway station,and evaluate the consequences of the accident based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Comprehensively determined the level of stampede risk in subway station according to the probability and severity of consequences.Finally,by considering the probability of basic event,the impact it made to the top event and it's severity to judge the importance of basic event,which can provide valid reference for safety management in subway operation.In order to verify the validity of the risk assessment model,this paper applies it to evaluate stampede risk in Guanggu Plaza Station.The results show that:(1)The probability of stampede accident's occurrence in Guanggu Plaza Station belongs to the middle level,and the consequence will be a little serious,thus there is comparatively large risk of stampede accident in Guanggu Plaza Station.(2)The key influencing factors include passenger's unsafe acts,great omission in disclosure of passenger flow information,failure in passenger volume forecasting,lack of security,morning and evening peak and so on.Focusing on the key risk factors,relevant suggestions are provided in this paper to improve passenger volume forecasting,promote information communication,strengthen safety publicity and education,enhance the efficiency of passenger evacuation,and strengthen the effectiveness of emergency drills.