Characteristics,Growth Momentum And Prospects Of India's Economic Growth Since Modi Came To Power

India is an important country in the sub-continent of South Asia and a representative member of the emerging economies.With its vast land and resources,covering an area of 3 million square kilometers,ranked seventh in the world.With a population of more than 1.3 billion,it is the second most populous country after China and has a younger population structure.Besides oil,India is rich in important strategic resources,It is also well placed,with a "dagger" into the heart of the Indian Ocean,overlooking a vital maritime hub that connects Asia,Africa and the Middle East,its coastline and more than 2 million square kilometers of exclusive economic zones,making it a uniquely endowed resource.Bharatiya Janata Party leader Narendra Modi2014 came to power,has promoted the "Make in India","Digital India" and "Smart Cities Mission" and so on to stimulate the economy growth of the grand plan,but also to speed up the implementation of domestic institutional reforms,including to promote land reform,labor law,bankruptcy law,the public sector privatization reform and national unity "GST" tax system,also in 2016 issued "Demonetization" to attack India's underground economy industry,in order to improve the business environment in India.Through a series of economic programs and institutional arrangements,India's business climate has improved,ranking 63 rd out of 190 countries in the latest ease of doing business index,more than double its rank before Modi took office.Economic data are also improving.In 2018,the total GDP of India reached 2.7trillion U.S.dollars,and the average GDP growth rate during modi's administration was over 7%.The economic performance has been booming all the way,which has made the world's attention for a while.It seems that the "incredible" India is back.Some scholars have compared India to a slow-moving elephant or a caged tiger,suggesting that India's economic power is being unleashed.However,since 2019,the Indian economy has been teetering and even falling off a cliff.The reason behind it is worth studying deeply.Since 2019,the Indian economy has begun to fluctuate and even show a trend of rapid decline.The reasons behind this are worthy of further study.This paper explores the driving force mechanism of India's economic growth by sorting out the stage development of India's economy and the characteristics and challenges of India's economic growth since modi came to power,so as to have a preliminary forecast of India's economic growth prospects.First of all,the first part of this paper describes the characteristics of India's economic growth since independence,which is mainly divided into two periods: before the reform in the 1990 s and after the reform in the 1990 s.Since the second part is to analyze the Modi came to power India economy shows the characteristics and challenges,firstly analyzes the status quo and characteristics of the Indian economy,after taking office Mr Modi,respectively from the economic growth,inflation,fiscal deficit to analyzes the status quo of the Indian economy in the macro data,and then from domestic consumption,economic structure and employment aspects this paper expounds the main characteristics of India's economic growth.This paper analyzes the main problems existing in Indian economy from the perspectives of inflation crisis,double deficit crisis and infrastructure barrier,and then expounds the challenges facing India's future economic growth from the perspectives of democratic defects,employment pressure,institutional shackles and international unfavorable environment.The third part is empirical analysis,using the GDP expenditure formula to establish a multiple linear regression model,analyzing the driving effect of consumption,investment,government purchase and net export on India's economic growth,and analyzing the main drivers of India's economic growth.Then,the vector error correction model(VECM)is established to explore the co-integration relationship between India's GDP growth and trade exports and imports.The last part is the prospect analysis of Modi 2.0 era,which analyzes the performance of India's economic growth after modi's reelection as prime minister,as well as whether the major economic measures implemented by Modi in his second term are effective or not,and makes a simple judgment on the prospect of India's economic growth.The basic conclusion of this paper is: although Modi implemented many policies to promote economic growth in his first term,he also actively promoted the domestic institutional reform in various aspects,and did not go back on the road ofliberalization and marketization.However,due to the opposition,labor unions,farmers and other interest groups in many key areas of reform,the reform has not achieved satisfactory results.Although the economic reform measures have a wide impact,a large span,and a strong force,they have dealt a certain blow to economic growth.In the early stage,India's rapid economic growth was mainly due to its strong domestic consumption demand,the improvement of infrastructure,the gradual upgrading of the industrial sector and the driving effect of investment on the economy.To be sure,although India has the potential for rapid economic growth,it remains to be seen whether Modi can maintain the focus of reform in his second term,continue to push for deeper reform and challenge more vested interests,and whether the international environment can create favorable conditions for India's economic growth.In the short term,India's economic growth has shown some signs of weakness,with the latest figures showing that growth fell from 5% to 4.5% in the third quarter of2019.But I think in the long run,India still has enough confidence and patience to adjust its domestic development path.In terms of investment,India can continue to use "make in India" as a fulcrum,leveraging domestic and foreign investment funds to gather in India,and relying on its competitive sectors to attract investment globally.In addition,India needs to increase the competitive advantage of domestic manufactured goods in the world and realize more exports of high value-added products to improve the current terrible trade deficit problem.Finally,in the future,India should take "infrastructure construction" and "digital economy" as an opportunity to develop the domestic economy,constantly optimize the allocation of domestic resources,leverage strengths and avoid weaknesses,and surely realize Modi's vision of "economic power".