Study On The Influence Of The Universal Two-child Policy On The Government Pension Fund

With the implementation of family planning policy for many years in our country,which brings the gradual decline in birth rate.At the same time,because of the domestic economy,medical and sanitary conditions' improvement,death rates are falling,our country is gradually into the ageing populations.The change of population structure,means that more retirees needs to receive pension insurance fund,but the people who pay endowment insurance are decreasing,endowment insurance fund fiscal pressure problems began to emerge.In order to promote the growth of the birth rate,our country starts to carry out the two child policy since 2016 and expect that by improving the future population structure which can alleviate the financial stress of endowment insurance fund and adjust the balance of endowment insurance fund under the equilibrium.This paper is based on the academic field of finance,which is to analyze both the theoretical and empirical studies and the effect of the second child policy on the future pension fund.Based on the different level of the total fertility rate,this paper is mainly distinguish the future population structure's change on the influence degree of the endowment insurance fund balance of payments as well as the time nodes.And also based on the influence factors which have referred about the endowment insurance fund balance of payments,to put forward the policy suggestions on improving the balance of the pension fund.The paper follows the theoretical analysis to the empirical analysis and finally analysis of the theory.First of all,it has a look at the literature at home and abroad,and then establish the method and method of research;And then we can theoretically analyze the evolution of the current pension system in our country and the problems of the pension fund and the main impact factors.The third is to analyze the transformation of the two-child policy towards China's population structure,and to design the total fertility rate from three different perspectives,namely,the two-child policy,the comprehensive implementation of the two-child policy and the liberalization of the birth control policy,and to establish the Leslie population measurement model to compare the development trend of China's future population under different policy conditions.The fourth is to set up the pension fund income and expenditure and the balance of actuarial model,then set the variables for the income and expenditure of the pension fund.According to the forecast of the population,the impact of demographic changes on the income and expenditure of the pension fund will be analyzed.In the end,based on the data from the model,we analyze the impact of different fertility levels on the pension fund.And combined with international experience and lessons,and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.According to the theoretical and empirical results,it is concluded that the two-child policy can alleviate the financial pressure of the pension fund in the future,but we should not be too optimistic.We should strengthen the income and management of the pension insurance fund on the basis of the two-child policy.