Employment Effect Of Technological Progress

Since China's gross national product growth rate fell below the 8%threshold for the first time in 2012,China's economy has begun to shift to a growth shift.At the same time,it is accompanied by a large-scale substitution of manpower represented by artificial intelligence.Breakthroughs in new technologies and the gradual debut of advanced high-end industrial automation technologies such as the Internet of Things and cloud computing,China's employment problems,especially the unemployment pressure of industrial employees,are increasing,according to a series of reports issued by the National Bureau of Statistics.According to statistics,the proportion of employed persons in the secondary industry to all employees gradually decreased from 30.1%in 2013 to 28.8%at the end of 2016.Although the official urban registered unemployment rate has been maintained at around 4%for only a few years,the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics published from time to time reflect the employment unemployment survey rate value is more likely to fluctuate in the center of 5%,but technological progress In particular,the major discussion of "machine substitutions" since 2000 is whether people worry about the world or should plan for it.It is worth paying attention.Previous research on employment effects for technological progress was mostly limited to the definition of technological progress as a factor in economic development to remove labor and capital,or to consider technological progress from the perspective of human capital.In China,domestic research pays more attention to the problem that technological progress from the reform and opening up to the beginning of the 21st century has brought about economic growth but has not brought about huge employment growth.It is more about the logic of capital-biased technological progress.Most of the data used is data before 2008.There is a lack of research on the unemployment problems brought about by the current rapid automation.And although there are many research methods and different methods,whether the impact of technological progress on employment is the total effect or Structural effects have not reached a consensus conclusion.Based on this,this thesis examines the overall situation of China's technological advancement and employment at the macro level,and discusses the technical progress in the type of product innovation that generates new jobs and the innovative technological advances that replace manpower.Based on this quantitative effect,a detailed discussion of the structural effects of technological advances on employment is launched.In the empirical model part,the continuation of the consistent logic of the article,using the latest data,to examine the impact of technological progress on China's manufacturing industry from 1997 to 2015,first of all,in terms of total employment,automation equipment innovation for the total number of manufacturing employment The inhibitory effect is more powerful than the product innovation in promoting employment.According to the theoretical model,this also reflects that China is still in the wave of electronic information,and the fourth industrial revolution has not yet arrived.However,in terms of the impact of technological progress on the employment structure,there is no conclusion that technological progress has led to the polarization of employment.In addition to high-tech industries,the increase in automation will have an inhibitory effect on employment.