A Comparative Analysis Of The Risks Of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index And Dow Jones Index After Sino-US Trade Dispute

The trend of economic globalization has made trade between countries increasingly frequent.China and the United States,as two superpowers with close trade relations in the world,will inevitably have an impact on the financial stock market due to the impact of trade wars.Because financial assets generally show peaks and tails,asymmetry and other characteristics,trade wars will inevitably make the statistical characteristics more complicated.This paper selects the representative stocks of China and the United States,namely the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the Dow Jones Index,before the war between China and the United States.The description of the comprehensive statistical characteristics of the post-war Sino-US trade index and the Dow Jones index yields shows that the Sino-US trade war has caused the economy of both countries to suffer losses.On this basis,by adjusting the GARCH model of different orders and selecting GARCH(1,1)based on AIC criterion and SC criterion,considering that the sum of GARCH coefficient and ARCH coefficient is close to 1 is not conducive to the stability of the model.The IGARCH(1,1)model is introduced as a model addition.Based on the mean equation and the conditional variance of the wave equation prediction,the corresponding model risk sequence Var is obtained.Through the risk comparison,it is concluded that the Sino-US trade war has increased the absolute financial risk of China and the United States.From the perspective of the overall risk average,China The financial risk factors are greater than the United States,but from the perspective of relative risks,it is precisely because of the Sino-US trade war that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Var has been more advanced than the Dow Jones index from the Sino-US trade war to a locality less than the Dow Jones Var and finally Significantly lower than the Dow Jones Var and the Shanghai Composite Index Var continues to decline,the Dow Jones index continues to rise.Finally,for the GARCH(1,1)model and the IGARCH(1,1)model Var accuracy test,it is concluded that IGARCH(1,1)improves the model stability compared to GARCH(1,1),but in the risk measure The accuracy of Var is not as good as the conclusion of the GARCH(1,1)mode.