Research On The Characteristics And Symmetry Of Earthquake Disasters In The Sichuan-Yunnan Area At Multiple Time And Space Scales

The geological conditions of Sichuan-Yunnan region are very complex.There are many geological fault zones,which divide Sichuan-Yunnan region into 5 large blocks.At present,Sichuan-Yunnan region is the most activing region in China.Studying the regularity of earthquake,judging the trend of earthquake disaster in space-time symmetry,analyzing the relevant factors has strong theoretical and guiding significance for constructing the region of geological disaster protection system,guiding the direction of tourism development,improving geological disaster defense mechanism in Sichuan-Yunnan region.Sichuan-Yunnan region is a large scale in this paper.The northwest-southeast fault strike,northeast-southwest fault strike are two small size for further analysis.We also analyze the literature of the historical record.We use the method of commensurability structure,butterfly structure,standard deviational ellipse to analyzing the occurrence regularity in space-time symmetry of earthquake disaster in Sichuan-Yunnan region,forecasting the earthquake.The results are as follows:(1)The statistics and compilation of historical seismic data in Sichuan-Yunnan region show that:The period with the highest frequency of Ms ?6.0 earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region is from 1800 to 1999 during 814 to 2017.The Ms ? 6.0 earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and Sichuan Province were all concentrated in August from 1900 to 2017.Summer and spring is the peak period of earthquake warning in Sichuan-Yunnan region.On the 15th and after each month,the Ms?6.0 earthquake is most likely to occur in Sichuan-Yunnan region.(2)From 1910 to 2017,the time symmetry analysis of earthquakes in the region found out that:From 1910 to 2017 in Sichuan-Yunnan region,the next Ms?7.0 earthquake may occurre in 2020 or 2021.The earthquake happening in 2021 is more likely.The probability of random occurrence of the earthquake is 63.2%.The confidence level without missing reports is 60%in 2021.The Ms ?6.8 in the Sichuan-Yunnan region,where the northwest-southeast fault strikes,may occur in 2021 years,with a random probability of 33%and an unresolved confidence level of 31%.The probability of the occurrence of earthquake in the southwest-northeast fault is greater than that in 2025.The probability of random chance is 90%.The confidence level is 81.82%.(3)The Ms?7.0 earthquake of spatial symmetry present the space rotation rule of triangular's "two inverse-One clockwise " in 1910-2017 in Sichuan-Yunnan region.The next time location of the earthquake s longitude and latitude may migrate to southwest.The Ms ? 6.8 earthquake that is on the northwest-southeast fault strike of Sichuan-yunnan region showed the feature of clockwise in spatial triangle migration.The next location of earthquake is likely to migrate to the northeast.The Ms ?6.8 earthquake that is on the southwest-northeast fault strike of Sichuan-yunnan region showed the feature of "two clockwise-one reverse" in the spatial triangle migration.The location of next earthquake is likely to migrate to southwest.(4)From the relevant factors,Ms ?7.0 earthquake are mainly distributed in valley value of sunspots or around the year in Sichuan-Yunnan region.They occurs mainly in the decline stage of the sunspot.The correspondence between the earthquake and the rising phase of the Earth rotation speed is better.The Ms?6.8 earthquake on the northwest-southeast fault strike of Sichuan-Yunnan region is mainly distributed in the valley value of sunspot or its nearby years.They mainly occurs in the ascending stage of sunspot.The relationship between the moon and the earthquake shows that:The frequency of earthquakes is the highest in the lower chord period.From the point of view of the correlation between Earth rotation and earthquake,the earthquakes often occur during the phase of the Earth rotation in this area.The Ms ?6.8 earthquake on the southwest-northeast fault strike of Sichuan-yunnan region are mainly distributed in the sunspot valley or its years.The earthquake mainly happened in the descending stage of sunspots.The relationship between the moon and the earthquake shows that:The frequency of earthquakes is the highest in the last quarter of the moon.From the point of view of the correlation between Earth rotation and earthquake,the earthquakes often occur during the phase of the Earth rotation speed.