Analysis Of Factors Affecting Non-performing Loan Rate Of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank

In recent years,China's economy is facing a downward pressure.The non-performing loan balance and non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks have shown a “double-lift” trend,which not only reduces the quality and profit level of bank credit assets,but also disrupts China's economic market order.The non-performing loan ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has been on the rise.It became the only listed joint-stock commercial bank with a non-performing loan ratio of more than 2% in 2017.The quality of credit assets has serious problems.Therefore,how to better reduce the non-performing loan ratio,find out the factors affecting the non-performing loan ratio,and improve the quality of bank assets are of great significance to Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and the entire banking industry.Based on the actual situation of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank,this paper analyzes the factors affecting the non-performing loan ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank by combining qualitative and quantitative methods and empirical methods.First of all,this paper describes the current situation of non-performing loans of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank from the aspects of overall.Such as structure,industry distribution and product distribution.Then the paper summarizes the characteristics of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's non-performing loans.Secondly,theoretical analysis is made on the factors affecting the non-performing loan ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank from the macroeconomic situation and the bank's own operations.On this basis,the empirical part of this paper selects the 2005-2018 quarterly data,uses M2/GDP,the total retail sales growth rate of social consumer goods,the loan-to-deposit ratio,the liquidity ratio and the non-performing loan ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to establish a VAR model to analyze the impact of various factors.The impact on the non-performing loan ratio and the off-sample dynamic forecast based on the model,the following conclusions: M2/GDP and deposit-to-deposit ratio are positively correlated with non-performing loan ratio,total retail sales growth rate and liquidity ratio of consumer goods have a negative correlation with the non-performing loan ratio;The impact of macro factors on the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and the impact of micro-factors on loan-to-deposit ratio have a greater impact on non-performing loan ratio;it is predicted that the non-performing loan ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank may continue to increase in the future.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical results,the countermeasures and suggestions for reducing the non-performing loan ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank are proposed from the aspects of prevention of increment and disposal of stock.