Assessing the relationship between propagule pressure and probability of establishment for the aquatic invader Bythotrephes longimanus using two complementary approaches

Estimating the probability of establishment of non-indigenous species is a crucial element in managing their spread. In this thesis, I use two approaches to estimate the probability of establishment of Bythotrephes longimanus, a predatory cladoceran that is invading lakes in Ontario and the surrounding American states. At a watershed level, I develop a vector based model to predict the probability of establishment of B. longimanus over time. I use metrics of propagule pressure from anthropogenic and natural dispersal to estimate spread, and extend the model to incorporate spatial and temporal gaps in knowledge of the invasion status of lakes. I found that recreational boating traffic is the dominant vector of spread and that most risk to lakes is due to static hubs of invasion---the five largest lakes in the watershed. Next, at the scale of a local population introduction, I investigate probability of establishment empirically. I follow B. longimanus populations over their entire life cycle and look for evidence of early invasion dynamics that may affect establishment, including Allee effects, demographic and environmental stochasticity, windows of opportunity and bottlenecks during sexual reproduction. I found that populations introduced at low doses exhibit weak Allee effects during sexual reproduction and that these effects strengthen over the season. Further, probability of establishment is positively related to propagule pressure; however, the relation is highly stochastic. The insights obtained on the characteristics of the relation between propagule pressure and probability of establishment at population and watershed scales can be linked in management plans aimed at slowing the spread of B. longimanus in inland lakes.