| The key focus of this research is to evaluate the potential hydrologic impact of climatic change on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) within Alberta, including the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River sub-basins. The Modified Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere (MISBA) land surface scheme of Kerkhoven and Gan (2006) was used to study the effect of climate change using four General Circulation Models combining with four SRES scenarios of IPCC. The performance of the physical-based distributed model, MISBA, and a lumped conceptual model, SAC-SMA, were evaluated based on their capability in projecting the future water availability. The MISBA model simulated more realistic results than SAC-SMA model and hence is recommended for future climate change study. It was concluded that if climate change occurs, SSRB is expected to experience a decrease in streamflow, snow water equivalent and volumetric soil moisture content. Hence, the policy makers are advised to plan out concrete actions to adapt the water resources system of SSRB against possible future water shortages. |
