Characteristics of young adults at-risk for metabolic syndrome: A trajectory-based approach

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been shown to significantly increase the risk of both type II diabetes and cardiovascular disease development. In light of the increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome, a better understanding of developmental patterns and characterization of at-risk populations may aid in the refinement of public health interventions. To address this, group-based developmental trajectories of MetS were estimated based on data obtained from the NHLBI, the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study (n=3673; 18-30y). MetS development, as defined by the Harmonized criteria, was assessed at 7, to, and 15 years after baseline from 1985 to 2001. Five distinct MetS trajectories were identified: No (19.3%), Low (25.2%), Stable (26.3%), Moderate (16.2%), and High (12.9%) MetS. Results suggest that there are distinct profiles of MetS development that can be identified by baseline risk factors. Further research is necessary to characterize the role of changes in lifestyle factors on these trajectories within a global risk approach to chronic disease prevention.;Keywords: Metabolic syndrome, group-based trajectory modelling, risk factors, physical activity, obesity, ethnicity, gender.