| Objective: The primary objective of this study was to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) in the United States using new anticoagulant therapies -- dabigatran 150 mg, apixaban 5 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg -- as well as the standard treatment, warfarin.;Methods: A Markov decision-analysis model was constructed using data from clinical trials that evaluated the new oral anticoagulants relative to warfarin (apixaban 5 mg & ARISTOTLE, dabigatran 150 mg & RE-LY, and rivaroxaban 20 mg & ROCKET-AF) to compare the lifetime cost and quality-adjusted life expectancy. The Markov model target population was a hypothetical cohort of 70-year old patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, an increased risk for stroke (CHADS2 ≥ 1, or equivalent), a renal creatinine clearance (CrCl) of 50 or above, and no contraindication to anticoagulant therapy. Using pair-wise comparisons of each therapy, analyses were conducted to evaluate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), net monetary benefits (NMBs), lifetime costs, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).;Results: In the base case, warfarin had the lowest cost of ;Conclusion: In patients with NVAF and an increased risk of stroke prophylaxis, apixaban 5 mg, dabigatran 150 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg may all be cost-effective alternatives to warfarin depending on pricing in the United States and neurologic events for rivaroxaban 20 mg. |
