| A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to determine fire likelihood probabilities at a 1-kilometer scale on a daily basis given readily available data. Data used included slope, aspect, elevation, fuel type, proximity to existing fires, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, average vapor pressure deficit, precipitation, and 1- and 10-hour fuel moisture.; Variables that best explained the fire activity were identified and used to spatially map fire likelihood for any given day. Next, slope, elevation, fuel type, and 1-hour fuel moisture were incorporated into a generalized model to provide a method to spatially compare increasing or decreasing levels of fire likelihood on a temporal scale. Results from both models determined that the previous day's fire likelihood areas can indicate the subsequent day's fire likelihood areas. When new fire starts were examined, they tended to occur in areas of moderate fire likelihood probabilities while few occurred in low probability areas. |
