Scenario Modeling And Analysis Of Marine Oil Spill Event

The ocean contains rich resources.With the rapid development of China's economy,the demand for energy has become increasingly tight,which also enables the rapid development of China's offshore oil industry.For the current situation,our country has been the world's largest crude oil importer for two years,so sea transportation and the development of Marine oil and gas resources are increasingly frequent.As a result,the maritime oil spill accidents are increasing in our country,especially the big,heavy oil spill accident risk became higher than before.The oil spill not only causes huge economic losses,but also,more importantly,has a very significant impact on the Marine ecological environment and people's life,and also poses a great challenge to China's emergency management and decision-making support for oil spill.The event of oil spill has a high degree of uncertainty and scene dependence,for a variety of complex scene,different scenarios need to make a different response.Therefore,we need a system of oil spill concept,and causality relationship between time and space,which integrates unified description and expression.And on this basis,we can make an analysis and evaluation of oil spill situation.This paper,according to the characteristics of oil spills at sea,based on the ontology model of relevant theories and researches of the predecessors,defines the concept,attributes and relations of oil spill scenarios involving,and from four aspects which is hazard,environmental hazard-formative factors,hazard-affected body,emergency activities,analyze the related elements and relationship between them,provide a knowledge representation method of the oil spill scenarios,construct the oil spill scenario ontology.Then based on the existing ontology,analyze the situation of oil spill from two aspects,on the one hand,in view of the oil spill disaster itself and its secondary disasters and pregnant disaster environment,using bayesian network method for oil spill damage reasoning and prediction,for the basic idea of this method,firstly extract the key nodes from ontology,then learn network structure and parameter combined expert knowledge with case data,finally realize the posteriori probability reasoning;On the other hand,the vulnerability analysis is carried out for the ecological environment in the oil spill hazard-affected body.Firstly,the relevant indicators of the ecological environment are extracted from the ontology,and then calculate the weight using AHP.Then,spatial analysis and visualization are carried out with ArcGIS.Through the analysis of these two aspects,it finally provides the emergency response service for oil spill.This paper takes the carbon-9 oil spill in Quangang district,Fujian province as an example,collects and collates relevant data,analyzes and verifies the research results,and provides references for the prevention and rescue work in oil spill emergency event,and reduces the damage caused by oil spill.