Quantitative Attribution And Simulation Of Land Use Change Based On Flus Model

Land resources are the basic structure of human survival and development,The rational development and effective use of land resources play a vital role in social sustainable development and ecological stability.With the deepening of research,More and more attention has been paid to the cumulative impact of land use on global climate change.To study the temporal and spatial evolution of oasis land use in arid areas,And the quantitative attribution of influencing factors to the complex dynamic evolution process of land use change,On this basis,the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the future is simulated.It has important practical significance for the relevant government departments to manage land use types and planning,It is helpful to improve the regional land use structure and realize the sustainable development of oasis in arid areas.Therefore,the study took Ugan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis as the target area,Based on the Landsat OLI/TM remote sensing images from 2005 to 2015,Use supervision classification to obtain three phases of land use status maps in 2005,2010 and 2015,Use transition matrixes,Land use comprehensive degree and nuclear density to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and rules of land use in Ugan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis.Combined with the geo-detector model,the 10 types of land use influencing factors such as NDVI,Soil,and DEM are discussed in depth.Finally,coupling the FIUS-Mar Kov model,Obtain higher simulation accuracy through parameter debugging,The results of land use change in the Ugan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis are predicted in 2025.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on envi5.3 software,the maximum likelihood classification method of supervised classification is used to obtain the classification data of land use status in 2005,2010 and 2015,The classification accuracy is more than 80%,The data can be furtherstudied.To realize the intensive use of land in arid areas and the sustainable development of regional land resources.(2)Spatial and temporal evolution of land use:During the ten years of land use change in Ugan-Kuqa River Delta Oasis from 2005 to 2015,the cultivated land,construction land and water area increased,and the forest land,grassland and unused land decreased.Among them,the amount of grassland>unused land>forest land>cultivated land>water area>construction land,Except for unused land transfers,The main types of land transferred are cultivated land and grassland,Specific for 1585.513 km~2?1135.820km~2.The index of comprehensive degree of land use was 187.88,207.74 and 254.35 in each stage from 2005 to 2015,It shows an increasing trend.In nuclear density analysis,The complexity of land use types increased in the past ten years.(3)Factor detection:The main explanatory factor for the three years is the same as NDVI and the land use comprehensive degree,the explanatory powers are 2005a NDVI(X1)q=0.779,land use comprehensive degree(X10)q=0.868,2010a values are 0.720,0.893,and 2015a values are 0.699 and 0.854.Interactive detection:The spatio-temporal evolution of land use is the result of the interaction between internal and external factors,interaction values and criteria show interaction as two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement.Ecological detection:The influence of various factors on the spatial and temporal distribution of land use change,The overall difference is not significant,The ecological detection with other factors has a significant impact on the spatial distribution of land use change,which is the comprehensive degree of land use(X10).(4)Based on FLUS model,Bring in the data of ten influencing factors,Simulate land use type in 2015,The simulation result kappa coefficient is 0.803,The Fo M index is 0.074,The simulation accuracy is high,It can be used to simulate and predict the land use type in 2025.