Research On The Allocation Effect Of Art Assets Based On The Perspective Of Economic Cycle

As a way of expressing the artist's soul,artwork is not only a combination of artist creativity and inspiration,but over time,the rise in the price of artwork also makes it have certain financial attributes,so it is considered to have economic value.With the rise and prosperity of China's Internet industry,a large number of streaming media have been opened to increase the demand for art by high-net-worth individuals.The capita GDP has exceeded 8,000 US dollars and entered an important stage of the overall jump in the service industry.The transition to the spiritual level has greatly promoted the development of the Chinese art market.As a consumer product,art is valued by investors for its aesthetic value and the potential prestige of its current owner;and as a lasting investment,its value is reflected in the discounted value of current and future consumption.Due to the uncertainty of the returns of stocks and other securities markets,large fluctuations in interest rates in a market-oriented environment,and the gradual return of real markets such as real estate from the boom cycle to the regulation plus,the art as investment products is increasing at the demand level.However,in the absolutely limited supply and demand relationship at the supply level,the interest of attracting investors or collectors is no longer just its elegant aesthetic value and lofty ideal expression,but more importantly,it is more in the cycle of economic slowdown or even recession,The Art's eye-catching market performance can survive the turbulent environment of related financial asset prices.Although there is a certain technical and financial threshold for art market access,and it is a very risky investment to earn capital gains rather than dividends,investors are increasingly demanding wealth management and asset portfolio diversification.It is required that the art market has become a new field for high-net-worth investors to seek a breakthrough in the economic environment turmoil.This article carries out analysis according to the research idea of "theoretical analysis-put forward hypotheses-empirical analysis-verify hypotheses-conclusions and inspirations".First of all,this article has formed a basic understanding of the construction of the art price index,the rate of return on investment,and the correlation with the traditional financial market by collating and summarizing the existing domestic and foreign literature.Second,based on the relevant foundations of modern portfolio theory and business cycle theory,four hypotheses are proposed.Third,based on the Yachang Art Network Chinese Painting 400 Index from 2000 to 2019,auction data of all Chinese paintings are used,and a hedonic price model based on fixed effects within the group is used to construct the art price index.Fourth,based on the sequence of returns of traditional financial assets such as stocks,bonds,real estate,gold,etc.,a mean variance model is constructed,and different artworks are quantified and analyzed from the perspective of artwork heterogeneity through the optimal risk asset portfolio and effective boundary movement.Finally,the HP filter method is used to divide the sample period into periods of economic prosperity and recession.Combined with China's economic cycle rotation,the asset allocation effect of art assets in different economic cycles is analyzed.The research conclusions are as follows:(1)Introducing a full sample of art assets into the traditional financial asset portfolio can effectively hedge the investment risk of traditional assets.(2)If the entire sample of artworks is grouped according to the age of creation,modern works are better than traditional and Ming and Qing works in optimizing traditional financial portfolios.(3)Compared with portfolios that do not include masterpieces of art,the risk-return characteristics of investment portfolios that include the works of the most well-known artists have significantly improved.(4)The role of optimizing asset allocation for artworks during economic expansion is relatively limited,while the allocation of modern and famous artworks during the period of economic contraction can better optimize the portfolios,that is,the role of artwork asset allocation has a certain "counter-cyclical" nature.