Research On The Influencing Factors Of The Scale Of Overseas RMB Demand From The Perspective Of Exchange Rate Expectation

With the opening of the process of RMB internationalization,the role of RMB in cross-border trade and investment has become increasingly important,and the channels for RMB cross-border circulation have become increasingly diversified.To explore the influential factors of the scale of RMB's overseas demand is very important to understand the formation of RMB's overseas demand and promote the further development of RMB towards regionalization.However,since 2015,the scale of overseas RMB demand has decreased significantly.At the same time,the RMB exchange rate has bid farewell to the era of unilateral appreciation and has begun to bear the pressure of depreciation.The corresponding RMB exchange rate is also expected to shift to a state of alternating appreciation and depreciation.Is there a causal relationship between the expected change in exchange rates and the scale of overseas RMB demand,and how does it exert influence? Answering this question helps to recognize the real driving force for the growth of overseas RMB demand,enhance the ability of China's financial system to respond to external shocks,and cultivate long-term and stable overseas RMB demand.From the perspective of exchange rate expectations,this paper explores the influential factors of the scale of overseas RMB demand.First,establish the theoretical model to obtain the general influencing factors that affect the equilibrium demand of foreign currencies,such as local and foreign currency interest rates,the expected exchange rate,and then observe the expected characteristics of the RMB exchange rate and the current status and changes in the scale of overseas RMB demand,and further analyze different exchange rate expectations.The specific factors that affect the scale of overseas RMB demand,such as the difference in onshore exchange rates and the settlement amount of cross-border direct investment in RMB,combined with the fact that China's capital account has not yet been fully convertible,analyze the impact of changes in the scale of overseas RMB demand.Ways and related motivations,sorting out how exchange rate expectations guide related factors ultimately affect the scale of overseas RMB demand.In the empirical part,with the help of VAR model and error correction model,we explore and verify the influence direction,dynamic influence process and long-term and short-term equilibrium effects of relevant factors on the scale of overseas RMB demand.Through empirical analysis,we can know: First,the exchange rate expectations can directly affect the demand for overseas RMB,and the exchange rate expectations can also be adjusted through intermediary variables such as offshore exchange differences,the actual effective exchange rate index of RMB,and cross-border trade RMB settlement It has an indirect impact;second,the RMB FDI has a continuing negative impact on the scale of overseas RMB demand under the expectation of RMB depreciation.This impact is likely to be a “borrowing” of overseas RMB under the background that the capital account has not been fully convertible.The passive influence method that flows back to the country;third,factors such as offshore RMB interest rate,offshore exchange rate and other factors related to the Hong Kong RMB offshore financial market and the underlying Hong Kong offshore RMB market have an important role in regulating the demand for overseas RMB Influence.Finally,this article makes corresponding policy recommendations:the corresponding policy recommendations of this article: First,improve the exchange rate expectations management mechanism to effectively guide the formation of exchange rate expectations;second,fully recognize the exchange rate expectations and the relevant factors under the guidance of exchange rate expectations,the scale of demand for overseas RMB Third,expand the opening of the financial market in China's mainland to the outside world at multiple levels,strengthen the linkage and cooperation between the RMB onshore and offshore markets,and improve the two-way flow mechanism of RMB within and outside China.