The Linkage Analysis And Forecast Of Gold Price During COVID 2019

In 2020,as COVID-19 hitted global economy,bringing political turmoil and social panic,the financial market fluctuated violently.Gold,one of the most important financial products,with both monetary and commodity properties,has the function of preserving and hedging.During this tough period,due to a rising investors' demand for a safe haven,the spot price of gold rose sharply.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze and forecast the gold price for financial investment during emergencies of the whole world like COVID-19 epidemic.The London gold prices on the London Bulion Market Association(LBMA),as explained variate,are affected by not only the dollar index,LIBOR rates,international crude oil futures prices and the Dow Jones Index as explanatory variate,but also the number of COVID-19 new confirmed cases in the world on the basis of the period from January 1st to September 30th,2020.We can use these factors to build cointegration relationship model and error correction model.The results show a fact that in case of a single explanatory variate,the gold spot price and the newly diagnosed number can construct a first-order single integration relationship;in the case of multiple explanatory variate,three co-integration relationships can be constructed among the six variates,forming a linkage relationship.In both cases,the increasing prevalence of COVID-19 actually boosted the spot price of gold.Subsequently,in the neural network prediction model,it was found that the neural network that included the number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 as an input variable had a better forecasting effect on the whole.