| Public investment is an indispensable to economic development factors of capital.However,the existing data of public capital stock in China is somewhat insufficient,which limits the research of public investment in this field of economy.Therefore,I think it is necessary to update the stock of public investment with the available official data,and provide as complete and accurate a set of stock data as possible to facilitate the subsequent research on public investment and the economy.As the economy enters the stage of new normal development,supply-side reform becomes a new perspective of economic development.On the basis of capital stock estimation,total factor productivity can be obtained.The result of total factor productivity estimation can effectively help us to understand the current situation of China's economic development,the contribution rate of public capital and other factors,so as to help us to see the development direction of the next step.This paper uses perpetual inventory method with fixed asset investment price index of national and provincial level,using as much authoritative data as possible from the authorities,with the same classification of fixed assets is made according to the world bank's authoritative classification of infrastructure.Then we estimate economic public capital stock,social public capital and private capital stock of the country's 1985-2018 and 31 provincial 1997-2018 level,and show the related results,then simply analyse the capital stock of the national and regional situation,public capital investment effect and growth effect.In terms of determining the depreciation rate,the calculated comprehensive depreciation rates of fixed assets formed by three types of investment are 9.07%,8.46%and 9.59%respectively.In terms of the determination of the stock of the base period,we adopt the assumption of steady economic growth in the national level based on 1985.The national economic,social public capital stock and private capital stock at the beginning of 1985,which are equal to the value that the investment for based year divided by the sum of the growth rate the capital depreciation rate,are 1459.60,727.94,7564.04 billion yuan.The provincial capital stock data based on 1997 are equal to the value of provincial new investment multiplied by the national capital stock in 1997.As estimating total factor productivity(TFP)with SOLOW residual value,this paper takes into account the refined capital types and divides the total investment into public capital and private capital,and uses the cummulative method of years of education to estimate human capital which is the comprehensive index of labor quantity and quality.On this basis,we research TFP and the contribution of each factor.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The TFP value of most provinces and cities increases year by year.The national TFP growth rate fluctuated between rise and fall,overall,increased between 1998 to 2004,decreased during 2005-2015.In 2016 and 2017,the growth rate of TFP has been improved,the TFP growth rate was about 2.4%in 2017.(2)The related results of the contribution of various factors at the national level are as follows:the contribution of TFP is decreasing,and the contribution to the economy is as low as 12.1%in the past five years.The total investment contribution is on the rise,peaking at 70.8%in the last five years,private capital contribution is 46.9%,about twice that of public capital.The contribution of human capital to the economy rose and then fell,in the last five years at about 17%.(3)The contribution of TFP and human capital in the eastern region is higher than that in the whole country,and the contribution of total investment is lower than that in the whole country. |
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