Evaluation And Regulation Of Adaptive Utilization Capacity Of Water Resources In Tarim River Basin

Adaptive utilization of water resources is a way of utilizing water resources adapting to environmental changes and guaranteeing a virtuous cycle of water system.It is of great significance to study the adaptive utilization of water resources for guidance on rational development and comprehensive utilization of water resources and realizing human-water harmony.With the continuous development of human society and the rapid changes in climate change and economic and social external conditions,the relationship among water resources,economic society and ecological environment has become extremely complex.High-intensity human activities have made water resources,ecological environment and other problems occur frequently,seriously restricting the harmonious development of human and nature.At present,the research on the adaptive utilization of water resources is mostly in the basic theoretical system,and there is little research on the application of quantitative methods and examples,and there is a lack of systematic research results of quantitative evaluation system and regulation and control model of adaptive utilization of water resources.By constructing the evaluation index system of water resources adaptive utilization capacity(Adaptive Utilization Capacity of Water Resources;AUCWR),and using the methods of harmony theory and comprehensive co-evolution model,this paper studies the adaptive utilization of water resources in the Tarim River basin,obtains the AUCWR and the adaptability of water resources,economic-social and ecological environmental subsystems,and analyzes the main factors affecting the AUCWR.Based on the theory of harmony and the theory of adaptive utilization of water resources,a regulation model of AUCWR is constructed and applied in the Tarim River Basin in Xinjiang.The main research contents include the following aspects:(1)To construct the evaluation system of AUCWR.Based on the concept,principle,connotation and judgment criterion of AUCWR,and according to the guiding ideology and principles of the construction of index system,25 evaluation indexes of three criteria layers of water resources,economic society and ecological environment are selected to construct the evaluation index system of AUCWR,and carry on quantitative evaluation.(2)Evaluation of AUCWR in Tarim River Basin.The entropy weight method,harmony theory method and comprehensive co-evolution model method are used to evaluate the AUCWR in the Tarim River basin and various states from 2004 to 2018,and analyze its spatio-temporal characteristics.The obstacle model method is used to analyze the influence of different indicators on the AUCWR.The results show that,from 2004 to 2018,the AUCWR in the basin and each state shows a fluctuating upward trend,but the upward trend of each state is different;secondly,the per capita GDP,the proportion of non-agricultural output value in GDP and other indicators are more difficult.(3)To construct the regulation and control model of AUCWR.Based on the theory of harmonious regulation and control and the theory of adaptive utilization of water resources,the construction criteria,objective function,constraint conditions,model solving method and optimization process of the regulation and control model are determined,and the regulation model of adaptive utilization of water resources is constructed.and develop a visual regulation and control system platform.(4)The application of the regulation and control model of AUCWR.According to the actual situation of the Tarim River,the AUCWR in the Tarim River basin is regulated by applying the proposed regulation model of AUCWR and setting up two regulation modes,namely index and target threshold,constructs a multi situation scenario control scheme to regulate the AUCWR in the basin.The results show that the adaptability of water resources,economic society and ecological environment subsystem can be increased by 25%,25% and 25%,which means that the adaptability of each subsystem reaches 0.6 and the AUCWR reaches 0.7.