Real Option Game Investment Analysis Of Real Estate Enterprises In Hengyang Under Uncertain Environment

Based on the characteristics of long project cycle,irreversible investment,high policy influence and high uncertainty in real estate project development,and the actual background of "controlling house prices" and "destocking" in the real estate market,this article points out that traditional investment decision-making evaluation methods Under uncertain environment,the value of investment opportunities in real estate project development will be ignored,and market competition factors often underestimate the value of project investment.The main research contents are as follows.First of all,when analyzing real estate development projects,there are many uncertain factors such as cost,price,market,land use,planning,etc.The classic investment evaluation method is not suitable for investment decision analysis.Secondly,it analyzes the implied option value and game characteristics of real estate project development.The application of real option game theory can better realize real estate project development investment decision analysis.Thirdly,it discusses the option game model in real estate development project between two enterprises with equal and unequal strength,combining Real Option Theory with Games Theory.It calculates the investment income and investment threshold,deduces the best investment opportunities for leading companies and following companies in different market environments.Taking into account the "one or the other" uncertainty prevailing in the real market environment of real estate development,quantify the uncertainty and risk in the investment process,calculate the project investment cost more accurately,and improve the option game model gradually.Derive a real option game model in an uncertain environment.Finally,carry out the correlation analysis of the real estate development market environment in Hunan Province and Hengyang City,provide new ideas for the healthy and orderly development of real estate in Hengyang City,and start with the analysis of the investment case of real estate development enterprises in Hengyang City,and use the real option game model to demonstrate The implementation path of the optimal investment decision for real estate enterprises is provided,which provides an effective basis for real estate project development enterprises to make investment decisions in an uncertain environment,thereby avoiding market investment risks.