Renewable Energy Consumption Prediction Based On A New Accumulation Grey Model

With the increasing demand of global renewable energy consumption,effective forecasting technology is becoming more and more important for the research of energy consumption market.In the face of complex energy consumption system,how to accurately predict energy consumption under the condition of limited data has important practical significance.In this paper,the research status of energy prediction is analyzed.According to the characteristics of "few data" and "uncertainty" of energy prediction,the energy consumption prediction of the European Union(EU)is modeled and analyzed by using the new grey forecasting technology,which provides reliable data support for the development of renewable energy research.Grey prediction model is an important mathematical technique to solve the forecasting issues of uncertain systems.It's been applied in many fields like economy,energy,environment and agriculture since its establishment.However,when it comes to complex nonlinear prediction problems,the existing grey prediction model is difficult to have high-precision prediction,so it is necessary to improve and optimize the model according to the practical application problems.In order to expand the modeling scope of the model and improve the stability of the solution,two new grey generating operators are proposed according to the principle of new information first,and have been verified by examples.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the variable weight accumulation method,a smoothing accumulation grey generating operator is constructed,thus giving different weights to the historical information and the new information.At the same time,based on the modeling conditions,the modeling application range of the smoothing accumulation grey prediction model is analyzed.Then,the differences between smooth accumulation and traditional first-order accumulation are compared in terms of initial value utilization and perturbation bounds of model solutions.(2)Based on the principle of new information first,a damped accumulation grey generating operator is established,which can flexibly adjust the trend of exponential growth of the predicted value sequence.The damping addition grey model is constructed and the method of solving the parameters is given.The properties of the damped accumulation grey model are analyzed from the modeling conditions,the stability of the solution and the reduction error.Finally,several existing grey generating operators are compared and analyzed,and the properties of commutative law and exponential law of new grey generating operators are studied.(3)Research on the forecast of renewable energy consumption in the EU.Based on the analysis of the current situation of renewable energy utilization,a new grey prediction model is constructed to forecast the renewable energy consumption in the EU,and the predicted results are compared with the predicted results of China,the United States and the global total consumption.In addition,the consumption trends of several major renewable energy sources,such as solar,wind and biomass,are forecasted and analyzed.The forecast results show that the proportion of the EU's renewable energy consumption in the world will decline year by year.