A Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution Study And Trend Prediction Of Ecological Welfare Performance In Shandong Province

The rapid economic development in Shandong province at the same time,also caused severe excessive consumption of resources and ecological destruction and environmental pollution problems,such as the focus of attention gradually from economic well-being to ecological benefits,ecological benefits,to respond to the national ecological civilization construction and the protection of the ecological dividend policy,such as in Shandong province has great significance to the sustainable development.This paper tries to make up for the deficiency of ecological welfare performance research with quantitative economics and theoretical analysis.This paper first defines and compares the concepts of social welfare level,human development index and ecological welfare performance,and then sorts out and analyzes the basic theories of social welfare level and ecological welfare performance,so as to lay a theoretical foundation for empirical research on ecological welfare performance.Then,on the basis of the ecological efficiency of research methods,from the Angle of input and output to construct performance evaluation system for the urban ecological benefits,ecological benefits of performance measurement for the PCA-Super-SBM model,based on panel data from 2007 to 2016,with 17 cities in Shandong province as the research object,and evaluates the ecological benefits performance level in Shandong province.In time,on the basis of comparative analysis and spatial correlation analysis,respectively traditional Markov chain method,Markov chain and space to build regional ecological benefits performance level in Shandong province of Markov transition probability matrix and spatial Markov chain transition probability matrix,the time characteristics and spatial characteristics of the ecological benefits performance together,discussion of time and space dynamic evolution characteristics and ecological benefits in Shandong province performance trend forecast analysis.In order from the perspectives such as social,economic and ecological sustainable development status in Shandong province,comprehensive evaluation and analysis,to the scientific development of Shandong province's economic and social,environmental protection,resources,make full use of the respect such as decision to provide valuable advice,for regional development strategy formulation and "people-oriented" the harmonious society and provide a scientific basis and reference.