Simulation And Prediction Of Construction Land Expansion Based On Ecological Suitability Evaluation

LUCC has become an important research content of environmental change and sustainable development.It is of great significance for regional sustainable development to study the spatiotemporal pattern evolution characteristics,ecological effects and simulation prediction of LUCC scientifically.In this paper,Daye City of Hubei Province is taken as the research area,combined with remote sensing,geographic information system,mathematical statistics and other methods,multi-level reveal the evolution characteristics of the spatial and temporal pattern of construction land expansion in Daye City,multi angle assessment of the ecological effect of land use change,and multi factor construction of construction land expansion simulation and prediction model,trying to plan a scientific and reasonable land spatial layout,It provides a certain reference value for the realization of land and space ecological protection and economic construction under the background of ecological civilization and Rural Revitalization.This paper is divided into three parts.First,reveal the evolution characteristics of land use spatial-temporal pattern at multiple levels.From the four perspectives of quantity change,degree change,type change and gravity center change,this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of land use pattern in Daye City from 2010 to 2018 by using the methods of land use dynamic degree,comprehensive index of land use degree,land use transfer matrix,land use change trajectory and gravity center transfer.It also identifies the expansion mode of construction land,analyzes the driving force of construction land expansion,and reveals the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of construction land expansion.The results show that the urbanization process of Daye City is fast,and the expansion of construction land is obviously driven by the existing villages and towns,which reflects the influence of natural conditions,location factors,social economy and so on.The second is to evaluate the ecological effects of land use change from multiple perspectives.Based on the data of land use change,this paper evaluates the ecosystem service value and ecological vulnerability of Daye City from 2010 to 2018,and reveals its temporal and spatial change characteristics;Based on the minimum cumulative resistance model,the ecological resistance base surface is constructed,and the ecological suitability of land in Daye City is divided into different zones,so as to grasp the change trend of ecological environment in the study area,and provide the basis for the simulation and prediction of construction land expansion.The results show that the ecosystem service value of Daye City has declined,the ecological vulnerability has deteriorated,and the distribution of ecosystem service value and ecological vulnerability has obvious regional differences.The ecosystem service value of southern mountainous area is higher,but the ecology is fragile,the ecosystem service value of northern urbanization area is lower,but the ecology is not fragile.Thirdly,multi factor construction land expansion simulation prediction model.Based on the spatial-temporal characteristics and ecological effects of land use change,coupled with the minimum resistance,grey system,cellular automata and other models,from the area quantity and spatial layout,this paper constructs a construction land expansion simulation and prediction model with the organic unity of economic development and ecological constraints,trying to provide a scientific reference for the new round of land spatial planning.The results show that the cellular automata model combined with ecological suitability evaluation has a good effect on the simulation and prediction of construction land,which can provide a certain reference and basis for making more scientific and reasonable land space planning while taking into account the ecological environment protection and social and economic development.