| Landscape ecological security is the core of the sustainable utilization of regional resources.When the ecosystem environment has not been completely destroyed,timely and objective discovery of the hidden dangers of the landscape ecological environment is of great importance to the sustainable development of the regional economy in the future.In order to understand the basic situation of landscape ecological environment,the status of landscape ecological security,the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes of landscape ecological security,and the development trend of landscape ecological security in the future of Ningguo City.This paper takes Ningguo City,Anhui Province as the research area,uses remote sensing image data in 2008,2013,and 2018 as the main data source,as well as DEM,administrative vector data,and road network data to explore the changes in the number of landscape types in Ningguo City and each township,and select12 landscape pattern indexes including patch number(NP)and patch density(PD)to analyze the landscape pattern status of Ningguo City.Based on Arc GIS,Ningguo City is divided into 1km×1km evaluation units,and the 2,618 evaluation units are evaluated for landscape ecological safety from the four aspects of landscape structure,landscape stability,landscape function and landscape pressure,and the distribution of evaluation results are further analyzed in time and space.On the distribution status.Taking 2018 as the benchmark year,using the CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the landscape ecological security of Ningguo City in 2028,expounding the landscape change trend of Ningguo City in the next 10 years.Finally,according to the landscape ecological security status from 2008 to 2028 and the distribution law of the whole region and each township,corresponding management strategies were formulated for different landscape ecological security levels to provide a scientific basis for landscape ecological environment management and land use planning in the region.The results of the study are as follows:(1)Woodland landscape and cultivated land landscape are the main landscapes of Ningguo City.Among them,woodland landscape is the dominant landscape of Ningguo City,accounting for more than 80%.From 2008 to 2018,the maximum area of woodland landscape was 210,897.58 hectares;the area of cultivated land landscape decreased by more than 6,000 hectares,which accounted for a decrease of 2.54%;the landscape of construction land increased year by year,and the area reached 10,071.64 hectares in 2018,of which Ningguo in 2008-2013 is the five years of rapid development of the city,the landscape area of construction land has increased by 43.69%;the area of water landscape has decreased by 1164.46 hectares in 10 years,other landscape have changed small.From the perspective of townships,Port Town has the largest proportion of cultivated land landscape,reaching 27.58% in 2018;Nanshan Street has the highest urbanization rate,with construction land landscape accounting for 27.88%;Helixi Street has the fastest growth rate of construction land landscape,increasing by 21.63% in 10 years;the woodland landscape in Antarctic Township,Wanjia Township and Hule Town accounted for more than 95%;the water area of Zhufeng Street was 1,329.71 hectares,accounting for 34.16%;other landscapes were mainly distributed in Wangxi Street,Nanshan Street and Port Town.(2)The analysis of landscape pattern index shows that the total number of patches in Ningguo City has been increasing,the landscape aggregation index is decreasing,the connection degree is gradually weakening,the patch density first increases and then decreases,and the contagion index has been maintained at a high level.The Aroma uniformity is relatively small,mainly because the woodland landscape has played an important connection effect,and the high dominance weakens the regional uniformity.Among them,the number of cultivated land landscape patches has increased the fastest,and the degree of patch fragmentation has increased year by year,and the edge density was relatively large;the number of forest landscape patches has doubled in area from 2008 to 2018,and the patch dominance is far greater than the other four landscape types;The dominance of the construction land landscape has been increasing year by year,and the number of patches has changed in an inverted “V” shape,which dropped to the lowest level in 2013;the edge density of the water landscape has decreased year by year,indicating that the edge shape of the water landscape has become more and more regular;others The overall landscape has not changed too much,and the number of patches shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing?(3)According to the results of the landscape ecological security evaluation of Ningguo City,from the perspective of temporal and spatial distribution,the Port Town,Helixi Street,Nanshan Street,and Wangxi Street located in the center of the city have the same trend of change,and large areas of higher security areas has been transformed to lower security area and low security area.Xijin Street and Port Town have the lowest level of landscape ecological security.Wangxi Street's medium-high security and high-security areas have decreased the most.Qinglong Township has the best overall level of landscape ecological security.The area of landscape ecological high-security areas is more than80%.From the perspective of spatial autocorrelation analysis,the spatial distribution of landscape ecological security values in Ningguo City is not random,and there is a certain positive correlation.From 2008 to 2018,Ningguo's global Moran index first increased and then decreased,reaching the highest value of 0.6559 in 2018,indicating that the spatial distribution correlation in 2018 was the strongest and the LL quadrant in 2018 can be seen from the Moran scatter diagram.The inner scatter plot is the densest.The local spatial autocorrelation shows that there are obvious "low-low" clusters and "high-high" clusters in the landscape ecological security of Ningguo City.The low-value areas are mainly distributed in the northeast of Ningguo City,with the landscape ecological security of Ningguo City has low values.The high-value districts are mainly distributed around the administrative district of Ningguo City,showing a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.(4)Based on the CA-Markov model,using 2018 as the benchmark year to simulate and predict the landscape ecological security status of Ningguo City in 2028,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.8293.The results show that the landscape ecological security of Ningguo City has transformed into high and medium security areas,and high security areas have been greatly reduced.Based on the landscape ecological security status of Ningguo City from 2008 to 2028,corresponding management strategies are proposed for the landscape ecological security zoning of Ningguo City?... |
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