Scenario Prediction Of China's Carbon Emissions Under The Targets Of Carbon Peaking And Carbon Neutrality

Since the Industrial Revolution,the global economy has developed rapidly,the consumption of fossil energy has increased sharply,and carbon dioxide emissions have continued to rise.The greenhouse effect caused by excess carbon dioxide has become increasingly prominent,accelerating global warming.In 2015,the international community reached the "Paris Agreement" on climate change,taking low-carbon green development as the concept of global climate governance,and establishing the long-term goal of global temperature control.In order to achieve this temperature control goal,the contracting parties have made clear commitments to develop a green and low-carbon economy and adopted a series of carbon emission reduction measures.As the country with the highest carbon emission scale in the world,China's carbon emission reduction efforts can directly affect the realization of global temperature control goals.Despite many challenges,China has made a commitment to "peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060".This is a higher goal established on the basis of commitments in the Paris Agreement,a positive signal for advancing global climate change governance,and a manifestation of China's responsibility and commitment.This is also a systemic change involving many aspects.Therefore,in order to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research and calculation of my country's carbon emissions and its influencing factors,and to explore the path of green development accordingly.This paper conducts a qualitative analysis of China's carbon emissions,and then uses the STIRPAT model to determine the factors that affect carbon emissions,and sets three scenarios of benchmarking,planning,and regulation,and sets the influencing factors separately to obtain the scale of carbon emissions from 2019 to 2060.Predicted value,and finally explore the appropriate path to achieve the goal of "carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060".First,analyze China's carbon emissions.At present,China ranks first in the world in terms of total carbon emissions.Due to the late start of industrialization,China is experiencing a stage of rapid growth in energy consumption and carbon emissions,and the scale of carbon emissions will continue to rise in the future.Energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity continued to decline.In terms of energy structure,the proportion of coal in total energy consumption is large but declining,and the proportion of natural gas is not high but continues to rise.In terms of energy distribution,Shandong,Guangdong,Hebei and other provinces have prominent energy consumption.my country's energy consumption and carbon emissions will continue to grow,energy structure transformation is more difficult than other countries,and the time from carbon peak to carbon neutrality will be shorter.In conclusion,achieving carbon neutrality by2060 is a huge challenge.Secondly,determine the influencing factors of China's carbon emission scale,and establish a regression prediction model.Factors such as economy,population,and energy are selected to determine the STIRPAT model,and the model is fitted by the ridge regression method.The empirical results show that the urbanization rate,energy consumption,and per capita GDP have a significant impact on the scale of carbon emissions in my country,all of which have a positive impact.Finally,a scenario forecast of China's carbon emission level in the next four decades is made.There are three scenarios for setting benchmarks,planning,and adjusting.It is predicted that the carbon emission scale of the baseline scenario will continue to rise,and the carbon peak will not be achieved before 2030,and the carbon emission scale will reach 302.35 billion tons in 2060.The target cannot be achieved under the planning scenario,but the increase in carbon emissions after 2030 is relatively small and remains basically constant,with carbon emissions reaching 142.68 billion tons in 2060.Under the regulation scenario,the scale of carbon emissions will peak in 2030,with a peak of135.62 billion tons,and will drop to 122.86 billion tons in 2060.Therefore,the most suitable scenario is the regulation scenario.my country should continue to improve the quality of urbanization,enhance people's awareness of environmental protection;improve energy efficiency,reduce energy consumption;accelerate the transformation of economic growth patterns,and vigorously develop a low-carbon economy.