Research On Correlation Between Ine Price And Oil Stock Index

Oil is of great significance to a country's economic development and national security.The country's industry,manufacturing and other industries and residents' clothing,food,housing and transportation are inseparable from oil.In 2020,China's dependence on foreign crude oil will reach 72.7%,and it is the world's largest oil importer.The fluctuation of international oil price will have a negative impact on China's stable economic development and national energy security.Therefore,it is necessary to improve China's voice in the international oil pricing system.Shanghai crude oil futures was listed and traded on March 26,2018.Its main purpose is to compete for oil pricing power and promote RMB internationalization.After three years of development,it has become a major benchmark for oil pricing in the Asia Pacific region and an important part of China's financial market.Since Shanghai crude oil futures has not been launched for a long time and there are few relevant empirical studies,it is of theoretical significance to supplement relevant empirical studies.At the same time,it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between Shanghai crude oil futures price and the stock index of oil related industries,to control the risk of securities investors in the market,to adjust the business strategy of oil related industries,to formulate the development policy of oil spot and futures market,and to formulate the national energy policy.This paper takes Shanghai crude oil futures price,Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and five kinds of oil related industry stock index as the research objects,uses the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the correlation between the objects,selects the daily data from March 26,2018 to December 31,2020,and uses EG two-step cointegration test and error correction model to study the price change of Shanghai crude oil futures.The first chapter of this paper describes the research background,significance,literature review,technical route,innovation and difficulties of the paper.Firstly,the current situation and significance of Shanghai crude oil futures are described.Then,according to the first level industry classification standard of wind,the oil related industries are divided into oil production industry,oil consumption industry and both oil consumption and oil substitution industry.Finally,the relationship between Shanghai crude oil futures price and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index,oil industry is analyzed in stages Finally,according to the theoretical analysis,three hypotheses are put forward,which are verified in the following empirical analysis.The fourth chapter is the empirical part.Firstly,the variables and data selected in the study are explained,then the basic statistical analysis of the data is carried out,and then the ADF stationarity test is carried out on the data to establish the EG two-step cointegration test and error correction model of Shanghai crude oil futures and Shanghai Stock exchange index,oil production industry,oil consumption industry and oil consumption,and substitution industry.The fifth chapter is the conclusion and countermeasures,summarizes the above empirical analysis results and theoretical analysis,draws the conclusion of this paper,and gives the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions according to the conclusion.Through this study,we find that in the long run,there is a co integration relationship between Shanghai crude oil futures price and the overall stock market and five oil related industries.Shanghai crude oil futures price rose 1%,Shanghai stock index fell 0.1396%,energy industry stock index rose 0.1401%,industrial industry stock index fell 0.2261%,which had no significant effect on optional consumer industry stock index,material industry stock index rose 0.1794%,and public utility industry stock index rose 0.1333%.In the short term,due to the influence of various factors,this equilibrium is impacted and corrected to the long-term equilibrium.According to the relationship between Shanghai crude oil futures price and stock index of oil related industries,investors in the securities market use futures to control risks,enterprises in oil related industries adjust business strategies,crude oil futures and spot markets formulate development policies,and the State formulates energy policies.