Research On Default Risk Of China Credit Bond Market

Since the "11 Chaori Debet" in 2014 broke the "rigid payment belief" in China’s bond market,by the end of 3 2021,the number of default corporates in China’s credit bond market has increased to 212.Especially since 2020,the default corporates in China’s bond market have shifted from low rated corporates to high rated corporates,and the focus has shifted from private enterprises to state-owned enterprises.it is a critical period for China to promote the reform of the capital market registration system.This article will take the credit default event of Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Holding Group Co.,Ltd on 10 November 2020 as the research object,deeply analyze the reasons behind the expected default of the supermarket,and on this basis,put forward the applicability suggestions for the healthy and stable development of China’s credit bond market.This paper mainly uses the literature research method,case analysis method and quantitative analysis method to study the default risk of China’s credit bond market and the default event of Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Holding Group Co.,Ltd.On the basis of previous studies,the paper further analyzes the underlying reasons for the failure of operational data and financial data in the traditional credit risk research methods,and is proposed to improve the risk management of China’s credit bond market from the perspective of regulatory agencies and intermediaries.From the perspective of the structure of the article,the first chapter introduces the violation of the credit bond market in China from the time distribution of the event of default,industry distribution,regional distribution,subject rating and corporate attributes.The second chapter of this article gives a brief introduction to the basic situation of Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Holding Group Co.,Ltd.,which paves the way for the analysis of the reasons for the default of Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Holding Group Co.,Ltd..The third chapter analyzes the reasons for the default of Yongmei Group from the perspective of macroeconomic operation,industry cycle,company operation,financial indicators and external support.The difference between the default of Yongcheng Coal & Electricity Holding Group Co.,Ltd.and other previous default events is that the traditional credit risk analysis method fails in some cases of this case.In the fourth chapter,based on the above analysis,the author puts forward the following applicability suggestions for regulatory authorities and intermediaries: on the one hand,for regulatory authorities,it is imperative to accelerate the establishment and improvement of a unified market regulatory system;secondly,to deepen the reform of the registration system,"let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation";finally,it is necessary to strengthen the information disclosure requirements of the group’s financial company and consolidate the due diligence responsibility of the intermediary.On the other hand,for agencies,credit rating agencies should dare to actively burst the rating bubble,introduce the "investor payment" model,and strengthen the independence of rating agencies.The lead underwriters shall further implement the due diligence work before issuance and the entrusted management work during the duration of the bonds.For investment institutions,it is not limited to business data and financial indicators to determine the company’s credit risk.It is necessary to conduct in-depth enterprise research to understand the data.In the fifth chapter of this article,the author summarizes the above main contents,and explains the shortcomings of this article,looking forward to making up for the deficiencies in future research.