Research On The International Crude Oil Prices And Its Influence On The Price Of Polyolefin Products In China

Crude oil is known as "industrial blood" as an important industrial raw material and its price have a greater impact on commodity prices and economic operations.In2020,Brent crude oil futures plummeted more than 30% with the sharp increase,at this time the demand for masks rise suddenly and sharply because of the international new crown epidemic,OPEC production cut negotiations broke down,Saudi Arabia immediately launched a price war,crude oil in the futures market plummeted,this is the largest order since the 1991 Gulf War.Is there any inherent relationship between the two price changes? The price of polyolefin products has risen and fallen like crude oil at the same time.In my country,polyethylene(PE)and polypropylene(PP)are the most widely used polyolefin products.The widely used in agricultural products,all kinds of packaging plastic paper,plastic electronic products,automobile bumpers,plastic daily necessities that can be seen everywhere at home,etc.,are all finished products made of polyolefin products as raw materials.With the development of my country’s national economy and petrochemical industry,the production capacity of my country’s polyolefin increased rapidly from 2005 to 2010,and the pressure of domestic supply competition has increased significantly,but it is concentrated on low-end products,while high-end products are mostly dependent on imports.At present,there are problems such as high raw material cost and low technological level.As a downstream product of crude oil,what is the relationship between the change of price upstream product crude oil?The price change of polyolefin products is not only affected by its own contradictory factors of supply and demand,but also with the price changes of its upstream product crude oil.How is affected on polyolefin products price by intermediate products or directly? What is the specific impact? This article will mainly establish an econometric VAR model,and prove the influence of crude oil on the price of polyolefin products through empirical analysis results such as stationarity test,Granger causality test,impulse response function,and variance decomposition.The results show that:(1)the price of crude oil is not the Granger reason for the price of methanol,nor is the price of methanol Granger reason for the price of crude oil;(2)the price of methanol is not the Granger reason for the price of polyethylene,and the price of methanol is not the price of polypropylene.(3)Crude oil price is the Granger reason of polyethylene price,and crude oil price is the Granger reason of polypropylene price.These results preliminarily indicate that the price of crude oil can directly affect the price of polyolefin products,without the need to use the intermediate product methanol to conduct polyolefin products.(4)The impact of crude oil prices on olefin prices shows hysteresis and convergence.The analysis of the excel correlation coefficient function proves(5)The lower the crude oil price,the greater the impact on the price of polyolefin products.On this basis,this article puts forward a series of suggestions on strengthening independent crude oil pricing and diversified polyolefin product cost countermeasures.