An Empirical Study On The Asymmetric Cost Transfer Of China’s Gasoline Market

The cost pass-through rate indicates the degree to which the price fluctuation causes the price of the commodity to change.Asymmetric cost pass-through refers to the difference in the degree of change in the rise and fall of commodity prices when the cost increases or decreases.Gasoline prices are closely related to international crude oil prices.When crude oil prices fluctuate,countries generally have the phenomenon that "gasoline prices rise like rockets and fall like feathers",that is,gasoline prices caused by rising crude oil prices reflect faster,while gasoline prices caused by falling crude oil The decline is slower,that is,there is a phenomenon of asymmetric transmission of gasoline cost price.By observing the data of oil price fluctuations in various regions of China,it is found that there are asymmetric cost transmissions in all provinces and cities,and there is a significant difference in the degree of asymmetric transmission in various regions.In today’s rapid social and economic development,the status of refined oil in life is more and more important,and it has an inestimable role in economic development.As the price of refined oil rises,it has caused an increase in people’s expenditures,resulting in consumption.Become the bearer of high oil prices.In this case,the study of the change in oil price transmission has certain significance.Firstly,by constructing a theoretical model,the paper derives the expressions of the cost transfer rate under the vertical market structure of vertical separation,bargaining and vertical integration,and analyzes the impact of vertical market structure on the transfer rate.Secondly,using co-integration analysis of crude oil price and China The long-term relationship of gasoline price,using the error correction model to estimate the asymmetric transmission of cost in the gasoline market;finally,after obtaining evidence of asymmetric transmission in China’s gasoline market,calculate the degree of asymmetric transmission in each region,analyze the market structure and not The effect of the degree of symmetry.The conclusions are as follows:(1)Vertical integration can eliminate the efficiency distortion caused by double markup and improve the overall cost transfer rate of the industry chain;the transfer rate is related to the demand curvature,The asymmetric reflection of consumer demand on price changes may lead to the asymmetric transmission of cost fluctuations.The analysis finds that there are asymmetric transmission phenomena under different market structures.(2)Through co-integration analysis,it is found that there is a long-term stable relationship between crude oil price and gasoline price.Through the test of error correction model,it is found that there are quantitative asymmetry and asymmetric transmission of mode in China’s gasoline market in the short term,but after a while This phenomenon has gradually disappeared,and eventually the upward and downward changes in gasoline prices tend to be consistent.(3)There is a significant difference in the degree of asymmetry of the cost pass-through rate in each region,and the relationship between the degree of asymmetry and the market structure is analyzed.It is found that the greater the degree of vertical integration,the greater the degree of asymmetry,and the density of gas stations(horizontal market structure)the effect on the degree of asymmetric transmission is significantly negative,that is,the more intense the horizontal market structure competition,the smaller the degree of asymmetric transmission.The results of this paper show that there is asymmetric cost pass-through in the Chinese gasoline market.The increase in oil price is usually greater than the change in oil price,which has certain guiding significance for predicting the change of gasoline price.Considering the asymmetric transmission of market structure The role can be achieved by improving the market structure(reducing the degree of vertical integration or increasing competition in the horizontal market)to improve the oil price changes,to improve the market structure and improve consumer welfare.