Research On ZH Company’s Shale Gas Development Investment Risk

With the rapid development of social economy,people’s demand for energy is also increasing day by day.According to the world energy consumption published by World Energy Statistical Yearbook 2019,natural gas has contributed at least 40% of the increase in energy consumption.Natural gas,as a low-carbon,clean and efficient energy in traditional fossil energy,plays an increasingly important role in the global green and low-carbon transformation.Shale gas belongs to unconventional natural gas extracted from shale or mudstone layers,and it is a rich and clean high-quality energy.The development of shale gas in China requires a lot of capital and advanced technology,and there are many uncertainties,which bring huge risks for companies to invest in shale gas exploration and development projects.This paper hopes to provide some investment decisions or investment basis for related companies by conducting risk research on ZH’s shale gas development investment.This paper takes ZH Company’s shale gas development investment risk as the research object.Through expert interviews,literature analysis,field research and other methods,based on the perspective of planning,according to the different understanding of shale gas resources,from resource evaluation,capacity evaluation and developing scale The three stages of development include risk identification and risk analysis of shale gas development investment,and a detailed description of reserves risk,production risk and benefit risk in different stages.Reserve risk is a prerequisite.Without energy reserves,production capacity and benefits are empty talk.Output risk is the key point and becomes an inevitable way for reserves to obtain economic benefits.Benefit risk is the comprehensive performance of reserves risk and output risk,and is the final indicator to evaluate the feasibility of project development.Based on the identification and analysis of shale gas development investment risk,the entropy value method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to evaluate the shale gas development investment risk of ZH Company’s FL construction production area.This article combined with specific examples,mainly obtained the following results: First,based on the perspective of planning,the criteria,characteristics,and methods for identification and analysis of the three stages of shale gas resource evaluation,capacity evaluation,and scale development are clarified;Second,identify the reserve risk,production risk,and benefit risk factors in the three stages,analyze them on the basis of identification,and clarify the relationship between each risk factor and the risk transferability;Third,use entropy method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the risk of shale gas development investment in ZH Company’s FL production area,and obtain the specific values and corresponding risk levels of reserves risk,production risk,benefit risk;Fourthly,it proposes the countermeasures for the risk of shale gas development investment of ZH Company,hoping to provide some theoretical reference for the risk management of shale gas development investment.