| Ecosystem services are closely related to human well-being,and the rapid economic development and human activities are becoming stronger and stronger.Its main manifestation is that land use changes can increasingly affect ecosystem services.Nowadays,optimizing the allocation and utilization of land resources has become a top priority.Maintaining ecosystem security and improving ecosystem service levels and quality have become important goals for coordinated and sustainable development of the region.Based on this,this paper takes Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture(Yanbian Prefecture)as the research area.By studying the land use changes and their spatial characteristics in the counties and cities of Yanbian Prefecture in 1996,2006,and 2016,the model is also used to simulate Yanbian food production,Net primary productivity(NPP),soil conservation,and habitat quality are the four ecosystem services;the relationship between land use change and ecosystem services is further discussed,and the CA-Markov model is used to simulate and predict three scenarios in the next 2050 Under the land use pattern under the last,through the ecosystem service trade-off degree(ESTD)to further explore the ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies under the three scenarios,so as to explore the best land use model.Provide scientific advice and reference for the local regional ecological security and sustainable development in Yanbian Prefecture.The research results are as follows:(1)From 1996 to 2016,forest land and cultivated land were the main types of land use in Yanbian Prefecture.The land use pattern gradually improved.For example,the area of forest land and grassland showed an increasing trend.The cultivated land and unused land were in a decreasing trend,and the construction land area increased.Not obvious.From the perspective of the transfer matrix,the conversion of various land uses from 1996 to 2006 was mainly based on the conversion between forest land,cultivated land and grassland.The policies of "returning farmland to forest" and"returning farmland to wetland" have achieved certain results,and at the same time,the expansion area of construction land has decreased.However,the expansion of construction land still takes up relatively more forest land and cultivated land.From 2006 to 2016,the increase in cultivated land,forest land and water area was relatively small,and the land use pattern gradually improved.In terms of regional comprehensive land use dynamics,Yanji and Hunchun have the highest comprehensive dynamics,followed by Hunchun;Wangqing County has the lowest comprehensive dynamics.(2)Natural and social factors have a significant impact on various land use types in Yanbian Prefecture.In terms of altitude,as the height increases,the forest land shows stronger suitability,while the suitability of cultivated land and construction land is lower;in terms of slope factor,the increase in slope is accompanied by the increase in forest land and unused land.Shows strong suitability,while cultivated land and construction land are less suitable;the distance from the river,water area,cultivated land,unused land and construction land are closer to the river,the larger the area ratio,showing stronger The suitability of forest land is weaker;also in terms of road distance,cultivated land,construction land and water area show stronger suitability,while forest land shows weaker suitability;As the cultivated land,construction land,grassland and water area are closer to the city center,the area ratio increases.These four types of land use are more suitable,while the suitability of forest land is weaker.(3)From 1996 to 2016,the food production in Yanbian showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing.The region with the largest food production in the state is located in Dunhua City,the western part of the region,and the region with the smallest supply is located in the central part of Yanbian State.Take Yanji City and Tumen City as examples.The difference in food production between 1996-2006 and 2006-2016 was significantly different.The total amount of NPP in Yanbian Prefecture showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing from 1996 to 2016.In addition to the total increase in Antu County and Helong City in Yanbian Prefecture,the rest of the counties and cities have decreased,with Wangqing County having the most significant decrease and Dunhua City having the smallest decrease.From 1996 to 2016,soil conservation services decreased first and then increased,and the overall relative increase.Habitat quality has declined in the early stage and rebounded in the later period,but overall habitat quality has declined.Food production maintains a trade-off relationship with net primary productivity and habitat quality,and net primary productivity,soil conservation,and habitat quality maintain a coordinated growth relationship.(4)In the land use scenario analysis,the land use change in the scenario of returning farmland to forest and the scenario of sustainable development gradually improved.In the expansion of construction land,forest land is occupied,arable land cover,urban expansion,etc.,the land use type deteriorates.By analyzing the future ecosystem services of counties and cities in Yanbian Prefecture,it is found that in terms of food production services,the expansion of construction land is the highest,and the conversion of farmland to forest is the lowest;of NPP services and habitat quality,the total amount of conversion of farmland to forest is the highest,and the expansion of construction land The lowest scenario;in terms of soil conservation,the total amount of sustainable development scenarios is the highest,and the total amount of construction land expansion is the lowest.Overall,ecosystem services are optimal in the scenario of returning farmland to forest and expanding construction land.(5)Use the Ecosystem Service Trade-off Degree(ESTD)to study and analyze the ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies under different scenarios to find the best land use model.Through this method,the four ecosystem service tradeoffs in the eight counties and cities in the study area are calculated,and it is concluded that the ecosystem service under sustainable development is optimal,and the future land use model under sustainable development is one.This is a win-win initiative for social economic development and ecological civilization construction. |
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