Trend And Forecast Of Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Guangxi

Climate warming is the most urgent environmental problem in recent years,In order to provide basic data support for the formulation of emission reduction policies,this paper adopted provincial inventory compilation method and based on the public data of the statistical department to estimate and analyze the emission trend of agricultural greenhouse gases in Guangxi from 1998 to2017,and forecast the emission of agricultural greenhouse gases to 2050.The conclusions are as follows:1.From 1998 to 2017,the agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in Guangxi showed a general downward trend,with an average annual reduction rate of 1.2%.In 2017,the total emission reached 36.3634 million tons of CO₂equivalent,of which the contribution of CH₄ from paddy field,N₂O from agricultural land,CH₄ from animal intestinal fermentation and CH₄/N₂O from animal manure management accounted for 29.4%,30.2%,21.6%and 18.8%respectively;2.From 1998 to 2017,CH4 emissions from rice fields decreased year by year,with an average annual reduction of 1.4%.In 2017,CH₄ emission from paddy fields was 427600 tons,the lowest in history;N₂O emission from agricultural land showed an upward trend,with an average annual increase of0.82%.In 2017,the N₂O emission of agricultural land was 36900 tons.Chemical fertilizer application is the largest source of N₂O emission from agricultural land,accounting for 14.7%;CH₄ in animal intestine fermentation shows a decreasing trend,with an average annual decrease of 2.5%.In 2017,the emission of this part is 314800 tons,and buffalo is the largest source,accounting for 62.7%of this part;CH₄/N₂O emission from animal manure management reached the lowest level in 2017,down to 165300 tons and 9000 tons,with an average annual decrease of 20 years The range of decrease was 0.33%and0.95%.Among them,pig is the largest emission source,accounting for 65.0%.3.It is predicted that by 2050,the emission of agricultural greenhouse gases in Guangxi will increase slightly,about 10%higher than that in 2017,mainly due to the increase of the number of animal breeding.