Will Industrial Transfer Cause Pollution Transfer Effect?

The imbalance of regional economic development in China has always existed.Industrial transfer is a means used by the government to regulate the regional economy.Whether it will bring pollution transfer effect to the industrial base during the transfer process is worth exploring.This paper takes the industrial transfer policy of Guangdong Province in 2005 as an example and applies the Difference in Difference method to construct a model to study whether industrial transfer will cause pollution transfer effects based on the panel data of 121 county-level regions in Guangdong Province from 2002 to 2010.The results show that:(1)compared with the Pearl River Delta region,the industrial and wastewater-intensive,sulphur dioxide-intensive and industrial soot-intensive enterprises have significant unit numbers and GDP after the implementation of the industrial transfer policy.The improvement indicates that the industrial transfer has promoted the economic transfer of the eastern and western regions of Guangdong and triggered the pollution transfer effect.Among them,the increase of industrial wastewater discharge is the lowest,which indicates that the pollution transfer effect caused by industrial transfer is related to policy orientation.(2)Compared with the areas without industrial parks,the discharge of the three major pollutants in the areas with industrial parks after the implementation of the industrial transfer policy has increased.(3)The effect of pollution transfer caused by industrial transfer has not weakened with the passage of time,and there are differences in the effects of pollution transfer in different regions.Among them,the industrial wastewater transfer effect in the eastern Guangdong and northern Guangdong regions is the weakest,the industrial smoke is the strongest,and the pollution transfer effect in western Guangdong has no obvious characteristics.