Theoretical And Empirical Analysis On The Decoupling Between Export Trade And Embodied Carbon In The Yangtze River Economic Belt

At present,it has become a global consensus to tackle climate warming.Carbon dioxide emissions are an important factor leading to global warming.All countries are actively taking on the responsibility of reducing carbon dioxide emissions,setting emission reduction targets,formulating emission reduction plans and implementing them.But there is a strong externality of carbon dioxide emissions,and there is a long-term transfer of carbon dioxide emissions in international trade.At present,China is the world’s largest exporter and the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases.For a long time,China has been playing the role of dual circulation of processing trade exports and general trade exports in the international division of Labor,behind the export growth is a lot of resource consumption and environmental pollution,and the embodied carbon in export trade is worth paying attention to.From now on,China is taking "accelerating green and low-carbon development,continuously improving environmental quality and improving the quality and stability of the ecosystem" as one of the important goals of economic development,―Peaking carbon dioxide emissions‖and ―Carbon neutrality‖ have been incorporated into the overall layout of ecological civilization construction.From the perspective of international trade,it is necessary to promote the high-level development of international trade,establish a green trading system,vigorously develop trade in green and clean products of high quality and high added value,and strictly control the export of products with high pollution and high emissions,to achieve a clean and efficient dual circulation of domestic and international.Yangtze River economy is the advanced demonstration zone of ecological civilization construction in China.Low Carbon Development is the meaning of ecological civilization,export trade as one of the driving forces of economic growth in the Yangtze River economic belt,its low carbon development means that the increase in the scale of export trade is no longer accompanied by a large number of CO2 emissions.Based on this,this paper first reviews the relevant literature on embodied carbon in export trade,and defines the mechanism of embodied carbon production and decoupling in export trade under the double cycle of general trade and processing trade.secondly,uses input-output method to calculate the hidden carbon of export trade in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Then,the decoupling index and the decomposed decoupling index corresponding to the scale,structure and technology effect between the export trade and the embodied carbon are measured by the LMDI-Tapio’s extended decoupling model.finally,some policy suggestions are put forward for the development of low-carbon trade in the Yangtze River economic belt.The results show that:(1)In recent years,under the double cycle of general trade and processing trade,the dependence degree of export trade in the Yangtze River economic belt has decreased,the total energy consumption is large,but the growth rate has slowed down,the proportion of coal consumption has decreased,and the development potential of new energy is large.(2)From 2002 to 2014,the growth trend of the embodied carbon in the export trade and the export trade in the Yangtze River economic belt is basically the same,and the change of the two is slightly different after2014.By sector,the chemical industry,general,professional equipment manufacturing,metal smelting and processing industries,petroleum processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industries,textile industry,the top five industries in the export trade embodied carbon.(3)On the implicit carbon decoupling of export trade,There is a weak decoupling between the embodied carbon in the export trade and the export trade in the Yangtze River economic belt,The effect of export scale has a negative impact on the decoupling of the two,and occupies a dominant position.The effect of structural effect is weak,however,the effect of decoupling is changed from restricting to promoting.The effect of technology is strong,and it has been promoting effect on decoupling.(4)In the aspect of decoupling difference,most of the industries including the Five high-export hidden carbon industries were weak decoupling,but the decoupling of some industries varied greatly in different river basins.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as optimizing the energy structure,strengthening the technological innovation,optimizing the regional export structure,perfecting the carbon trading market,and so on,to promote the low-carbon development of export trade in the Yangtze River economic belt.