Simulation And Optimization Of Carbon Emission System In Changsha Under The Guidance Of Green Development

Global warming has become a common problem facing all mankind in the 21 st century,which seriously restricts the sustainable development of mankind.Carbon dioxide produced by burning traditional fossil fuels is the main culprit of the greenhouse effect,so reducing carbon dioxide emissions is an important way to curb global warming.China is the world’s second largest economy.As a responsible major country,it is duty-bound to protect the environment and pursue sustainable development.As the capital city of Hunan Province,Changsha plays a core role.At present,the economy of Changsha maintains a fast development speed,and the secondary industry still occupies a relatively high proportion.The development mode of high energy consumption and high pollution restricts the green development of Changsha.This paper mainly studies the carbon emission system of Changsha from three aspects: the analysis of the current situation of carbon emission,the construction of the dynamic model of carbon emission system of Changsha and the simulation analysis of carbon emission scenario.Firstly,it introduces the development policy and function orientation of Changsha City,and summarizes the basic status quo of economy,society,industry and energy consumption of Changsha City.Then,according to the relevant energy data of Changsha Statistical Yearbook,the carbon dioxide emission of Changsha from 2010 to 2019 is calculated by using the IPCC method.Then,the establishment of causality diagram,carbon system can be divided into four economic,social,energy and environment subsystem,according to the relation between each subsystem,carbon emissions model is established,and through the validity check to verify the rationality of the model,through the inspection,on the basis of the changsha city carbon emissions system dynamics model to analyze the results of the initial conditions;Finally,by using the method of scenario analysis,as a set of indicators,choose the proportion of the industrial structure,energy consumption,carbon emissions factors such as technology,set low speed development situation,and benchmark development situation of highspeed development,analysis of different policy scenarios of changsha change trend of energy consumption and carbon emissions,and analyzes the simulation results,It is suggested that adjusting industrial structure,increasing investment in science and technology,and optimizing energy structure are conducive to realizing green and low-carbon development of Changsha.This study provides a reference value for the government to formulate related low-carbon policies.