| Land use/land cover change（LUCC）is an expression of human influence on different surface systems.Revealing the process and influencing factors of regional LUCC and identifying its possible impact on ecological environment have always been the core issues of LUCC research.This research has important scientific significance for rationally understanding and regulating land use patterns and realizing sustainable development in the region.The construction of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor（CMEC）is a major coorperation strategy under the background of the“Belt and Road”,along with the implementation of the strategy in the future,it will certainly bring about the rapid development of regional economy and society,therefore,it has a certain impact on the LUCC and ecological environment of the Radial area of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor（this study refers to Yunnan Province and Myanmar）（RACMEC）.And the RACMEC is a hotspot of biodiversity both China and Myanmar and even the world,which has high conservation value.At present,considering the lack of research on LUCC in the RACMEC,it is urgent to conduct a thorough analysis of past LUCC and its influence factors,simulate and predict the future LUCC,it can lay the foundation for the future research on LUCC and its impact on ecological environment.Land use data of RACMEC in 1995,2005,2015,other geographic and socio-economic data were used in this paper.Firstly,the spatial pattern and process of LUCC in RACMEC in1995-2005,2005-2015 was analyzed by single and comprehensive land use dynamic degree,comprehensive index of land use degree,information entropy index,equilibrium degree index,dominance degree index and area transfer matrix.Secondly,the similarities and differences of LUCC patterns in Yunnan Province and Myanmar were analyzed.Then 8 influencing factors of LUCC were selected and correlation analysis and logistic regression analysis were done to obtain an atlas of land use suitability.Based on land use data in 2005,the LUCC distribution pattern in 2015 was simulated by the coupling of cellular automata（CA）and Markov model.Finally,under scenarios I（limited by water body and urban area）and II（adding nature reserves）,based on the land use data in 2015 and the parameters set by the simulationin,the LUCC pattern in the RACMEC was predicted in 2025.The results are as follows:（1）From 1995,2005 and 2015,the types of land use in the RACMEC include forest,cropland,grassland,water body,urban area and bare land.Forest land is the main type,accounting for 71-72%.It was followed by cropland（23%）and grassland（4.6%）.The total area of water body,urban area and bare land is no more than 1.5%.（2）From the perspective of dynamic changes in 1995-2015,LUCC in the RACMEC don’t change significantly.The area of forest decrease the most（-9322.00 km~2）,the area of cropland increase the most（6462.10 km~2）,and the expansion rate of urban area is the fastest（6.66%）.The characteristics of land use transfer change mainly show the change from natural landscape to artificial landscape,the internal transfer of natural landscape or artificial landscape and the reverse transfer of artificial landscape to natural landscape.（3）Similarities and differences of LUCC characteristics in Yunnan Province and Myanmar.The differences are as follows:in 1995-2015,the forest,grassland and bare land in Yunnan Province decreased continuously,the urban area expanded continuously,and the cropland and water body increased first and then decreased.In Myanmar,forest decreased the most（-8367.00km~2）,while the other five land use types all increased.Urban area is expanding faster in Yunnan Province（12.50%）than in Myanmar（7.20%）.Similarities:the land use transfer between Yunnan Province and Myanmar mainly occurred between forest,grassland,cropland and urban area.The obvious characteristics of the LUCC hotspots in Yunnan province and Myanmar is that the hotspots of forest decrease correspond to the hotspots of cropland and grassland increase,the hotspots of cropland decrease correspond to the hotspots of urban area increase.（4）In 2025,under the scenarios I and II,there is little difference in land use area prediction in the RACMEC.Mainly as follows:the LUCC pattern in the RACMEC in 2025 was consistent with that in 1995-2015.Forest was the main land use type,accounting for about 64.51%,followed by cropland（24.97%）,and grassland,urban area,water body and bare land accounted for 10.52%in total.Under scenario II,the natural landscape can be protected when the nature reserve is set up as the limiting condition.（5）Under the scenarios I and II in 2025,from Yunnan Province and Myanmar,respectively,LUCC vary between the two regions,The main show is:for Yunnan Province,grassland decreased（-1.47%）,other land use types are expanding,the expansion of forest（558.45 km~2）and water body（33.12 km~2）was obvious.For Myanmar,the LUCC pattern is opposite,the area of forest,cropland,urban area,water body and bare land are all reduced,respectively,decreased by 0.12%,0.05%,0.14%,0.32%,9.96%,while the grassland have larger growth（2.86%）. |
PDF Full Text Request