| In human activities,the health of land guarantees the complete operation of regional social economy.Land is in a safe,coordinated and non-threatening state and provides necessary resource support for human activities.As a result of the rapid expansion of the town,the intensity of land development is also strengthened,resulting in the intensification of land fragmentation,and gradually salient land ecological questions,such as soil destruction,water pollution and flow interruption,and the decrease of ecological service capacity of the biosphere.The relationship between land resources and social and economic development has gradually drew notice.The 19 reports offered to innovation ecological civilization system,construction of health,ecological,beautiful China.Protecting the ecological health of regional land,using land appropriately,paying attention to the protection of land environment and ensuring the sustainable development of land have become especial matters in the study of land ecological security.Taking Fuping County as an example,this paper establishes an evaluation system of land ecological security through DPSIR model,and selects 21 indicators from social economy,population,resources and surroundings in combination with Fuping County’s actual conditions such as national economy,social development level,geographical orientation and natural surroundings.The entropy weight way is adopted to evaluate index weight,the matter-element way in fuping County from 2014 to 2019 and its villages and towns to evaluate security conditions.Based on the evaluation results of Fuping County,the GM(1,1)grey system theory model was used to predict the safety situation of Fuping County from 2020 to 2024.On the basis of the results of township evaluation,the security situation of Fuping County in 2019 is warned.The results are as follows:(1)From 2014 to 2019,the situation of land ecological security in Fuping County gradually improved,and the comprehensive index value increased from 0.3962 to 0.6106.From the five aspects,the driving force index,state index,influence index and response index all showed an increasing trend,but the ecological pressure index of land decreased continuously,which was mainly caused by the acceleration of land reclamation,the increase of the amount of agricultural fertilizer,the expansion of construction land and the scale of cities and towns.(2)According to the GM(1,1)prediction model,it is known that the land ecological security situation in Fuping County will continue to improve from 2020 to 2024.The comprehensive prediction index values are 0.6602,0.6925,0.7264,0.7620,0.7993,respectively.During the four years,the comprehensive prediction index value gradually increased,the driving force layer prediction index,state layer prediction index,influence layer prediction index and response layer prediction index of land ecosystem all showed an upward trend,and the pressure layer prediction index showed a downward trend.(3)In 2019,the level of land ecological security of villages and towns in Fuping County will be improved,but there are obvious differences among the 13 villages and towns,showing a land pattern of "middle low,high around".In 2014,the safety situation in most areas of Fuping County was relatively poor,and the evaluation levels included low,medium and low.In 2019,the safety situation of 6 towns in Fuping County is deteriorating continuously,and 7 townships are getting better gradually.The evaluation levels include low,medium,medium,medium and high,among which Fuping and Wanglinkou Town are low grade,Longquanguan Town and Pingyang Town are medium and low grade,and other townships are medium,medium and high grade.(4)The early warning status of towns and villages in Fuping County mainly includes the improvement of the security situation,the improvement of the situation of the safer situation,the warning of the safer zone but slowly degrading,the warning and the unsafe situation of the safer zone but rapidly degrading Early warning of regional insecurity.Among them,Fuping town and Wanglinkou town are unsafe early warning and are in the unsafe situation area;Tianshengqiao town is a warning of rapid degradation and is in a relatively safe area.Longquanguan town,Pingyang town for slow degradation warning,in a relatively safe area;the town of Chengnanzhuang is improving and developing,which is in a safer area.The remaining 7 townships are all in the region of security situation.In this paper,the DPSIR model is used to establish land ecological security evaluation system.Combined with the field data of Fuping County,the matter-element method is used to evaluate the security situation of Fuping County.On the basis of the county evaluation results,the GM(1,1)grey model is used to predict the change of the security situation of Fuping County,through the establishment of a standard model to early warn the changes in the security situation of villages and towns,and put forward the control means and methods to improve the land ecological security,to provide decision-making reference for the maintenance and spatial adjustment of land in Fuping County. |
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