Evaluation Of Energy Efficient Utilization Based On Coordinated Development Of Economy And Environment In Zhangjiakou

In recent years,the pressure of ecological environment caused by unreasonable utilization of energy has become more and more serious.With the proposed carbon neutral target,vigorously developing renewable energy and promoting energy conservation and emission reduction have become the inevitable choice to achieve the carbon emission reduction target and promote the coordinated development of economy and society.Zhangjiakou is a national renewable energy demonstration area and an ecological conservation area in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The positioning of renewable energy demonstration area brings opportunities for the development of emerging industries in Zhangjiakou,while the positioning of ecological conservation area restricts the development of local traditional industries.Based on 3E system theory and system dynamics theory,this study comprehensively analyzed the current situation and existing problems of energy,economy and environment in Zhangjiakou City by using literature analysis,system dynamics and cost-benefit analysis,and built a system dynamics model for the effective utilization of energy in Zhangjiakou City.Based on the data from 2006 to 2018,The energy,economy and environment change trend of Zhangjiakou City from 2019 to 2030 is simulated,and the main conclusions are as follows:(1)Under the single policy regulation mode,the implementation of energy policy and the increase of the proportion of new energy utilization resulted in a significant decline in energy intensity per unit of GDP,a significant decline in carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,and a decline in environmental pollution emissions,but limited space for emission reduction;During the implementation of the industrial policy,the proportion of industry has declined,economic growth has slowed down,and energy consumption,energy intensity and major environmental pollutants have all decreased significantly.During the implementation of fiscal policies,spending on energy conservation and environmental protection increased,and energy intensity and environmental pollution emissions gradually decreased.(2)Under the policy combination regulation mode,when the energy policy,industrial policy and fiscal policy are implemented simultaneously,the energy utilization efficiency is the highest,the emission of environmental pollutants is the lowest,and the carbon emission reduction is the highest.In terms of energy,by 2030,total energy consumption will be reduced to 2.0457 million tons of standard coal,and energy intensity per unit of GDP will be reduced to 0.657 tons of standard coal per 10,000 yuan.The energy consumption structure will be the most clean,with new energy accounting for 29.5 percent of total energy consumption by 2030.In terms of environment,by 2030,Zhangjiakou’s carbon emission intensity will be reduced to 1.06 tons/ten thousand yuan,and industrial SO2 emissions and industrial NOx emissions will be 1,505 tons and 5,534 tons respectively.(3)This study adopts cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic and environmental benefits under the policy combination regulation mode in order to explore the optimal mode of coordinated development between energy utilization and economic environment in Zhangjiakou City.According to the calculation,when the policy combination scenario 3 is implemented,Zhangjiakou will get the largest economic and environmental benefits.By 2030,the economic and environmental benefits of Zhangjiakou will reach 28.979 billion yuan.