The Trend Prediction Of Carbon Emissions In Export Trade In China Based On GSA-ELM Model

Under the trend of economic globalization and environmental globalization,the greenhouse effect that leads to global warming has already attracted extensive attention of the international community.It is well known that carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of global climate change.As the scale of China’s export trade continues to expand,energy consumption is also increasing,resulting in a large number of export trade hidden carbon emissions.According to a report released by relevant international research institutions,China’s export carbon ratio is already the highest in the world.Thus,China’s export trade has become an important factor affecting its carbon emissions.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance for China’s economic development and trade structure adjustment to study the influencing factors of carbon implicit in China’s export trade and establish a carbon emission prediction system for China’s export trade.This paper estimates the carbon emissions from China’s export trade from 2000 to2017,and finds that China’s export carbon emissions tend to rise first and then flatten out.Against Chinese export trade of the actual situation of carbon emissions from the scale effect,structure effect,technology effect and market effect of four selected factors,China’s exports in 2000 to 2017 implied carbon value for the system characteristic variables,using the grey correlation analysis method to qualitative analysis,the main influence factors to explore the main influence factors affecting China’s export trade implicit carbon.Based on the study of grey relational degree analysis,nine development scenarios were set for China’s carbon emissions from 2018 to 2025 according to the development status of each influencing factor,and GSA-ELM model was used to predict the carbon implications of China’s export trade.Finally,the analysis results show that China’s export trade will have different trends in the future,and the implied carbon intensity of export trade has been declining.The study of this paper provides a certain reference basis for further strengthening the management of carbon emission in China’s export trade,which is of great significance for promoting the healthy and stable development of China’s export trade.