Path Analysis Of Agricultural Industry Agglomeration And Economic Impact On The Environment

The rapid development of agricultural economy depends on the improvement of resource endowment,factor allocation efficiency and labor productivity in various regions.However,the accumulation of waste generated during the production process and the unreasonable discharge have made the ecology more and more fragile,which has become a key stumbling block on the road to restrict the development of agricultural economic modernization.At present,the situation of agricultural non-point source environmental pollution is severe,and it is urgent to resolve the conflict between economic growth and the development imbalance between the ecological environment and reduce the increasingly prominent ecological load.Agricultural industrial agglomeration completes the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure from the spatial and geographic level,and achieves "clean" production with the effects of competition and technology spillovers,which has a positive effect on entering the new normal of the economy and improving the environment.The thesis focuses on agricultural development,and tries to establish models based on the degree of agglomeration of 21 cities and prefectures and explore the non-linear path of the impact of agricultural agglomeration and economy on the ecological environment.The breakthrough point is to find a "win-win" situation for achieving sustainable development of the agricultural economy and increasing crop yield and quality.The research period of the paper is from 2009 to 2017.The agricultural industry agglomeration level of 21 cities and prefectures in Sichuan Province was measured by the Gini coefficient method.The time series data were used to fit the extended EKC curves of each city and prefecture on the emissions of chemical fertilizers,pesticides and agricultural plastic films.The agricultural industry agglomeration degree and the ecological effects of the economy in various cities issued early warning to cities with unsatisfactory development models;combined with Tapio’s elastic decoupling coefficient to depict the dependence between the overall economic growth of Sichuan Province and the ecological environment,focusing on the decoupling status of 2016-2017 Transformed to cities and prefectures,showing the complete situation with decoupling coefficient maps.The paper uses location entropy to measure the concentration of 10 major crops in Sichuan Province,including grain,vegetables,fruits,oilseeds,medicinal materials,cotton,sugar,hemp,tobacco,and tea;a panel threshold regression model is established to verify the existence of the concentration of each crop Threshold effect,exploring the changes of ecological effects in different industrial agglomeration intervals,clarifying the impact of agricultural industrial agglomeration and the economy on the environment,and providing scientific references for the development of agricultural modernization.The research found that:(1)the overall agricultural agglomeration level in Sichuan Province gradually increased,and the agricultural agglomeration levels in Guangyuan,Dazhou,Ya’an,and Panzhihua increased significantly from 2009 to2017;agricultural agglomerations in Leshan,Ziyang,Bazhong,and Yibin The degree has declined,and agricultural regions have developed in a balanced manner.(2)Thirteen of the 21 cities and prefectures have an ideal “inverted U” or “inverted N” development mode between agricultural economic growth and pollution emissions from pesticides and agricultural plastic films,and most of them show “ N"pattern.After the fixed economic effects,the agricultural agglomeration degrees in Chengdu,Guangyuan,Meishan,Nanchong,Panzhihua,Suining,and Ya’an all have inhibitory effects on three types of environmental pollution.The province’s pesticide pollution discharge and economic development have entered a strong decoupling state,while the pollution discharge of chemical fertilizers and plastic films has not yet achieved a strong decoupling in 21 cities and prefectures.(3)The location entropy of grains,vegetables,fruits,oilseeds,and medicinal materials is relatively small in 21 cities and prefectures,and the growth of crops is widespread;cotton,sugar,hemp,tobacco,and tea crops have regional characteristics,respectively.Only a few cities have a high degree of agglomeration,and the location entropy value is much higher than the provincial average.(4)There are significant interval differences in the ecological effects of crop concentration.In terms of chemical fertilizer emissions,the economic growth and pollution emissions of most crops during the accumulation process show a gradual positive correlation or change in the pattern of "increasing first and then decreasing";while the ecological effects of pesticides are mostly reflected in the decreasing negative environmental externalities;In the threshold model of agricultural plastic film,the negative externalities of the environment show the largest reduction of crops after the increase.